South Carolina needs help from other teams to make the playoffs. Here’s who to root for
OK, let’s be frank: South Carolina likely won’t make the College Football Playoff. That is not an opinion. It is a fact.
Searching for a spot in the inaugural 12-team playoff, the No. 18 Gamecocks are stuck on the outside looking in. The problem comes down to math and what we think we know about what the selection committee values.
South Carolina’s problem is that it has three losses. It is currently the highest-ranked three loss squad in the College Football Playoff Rankings, which is great but serves as a bit of a barrier for the Gamecocks ascending into the Top 12.
Which leads us to the rooting guide. Because not only does South Carolina (7-3, 5-3 SEC) need to win its remaining two games — vs. Wofford this Saturday and at No. 17 Clemson next week — but it needs a number of those two-loss teams to incur a third loss. That way the Gamecocks can essentially be viewed on an even playing field.
Heading into the final two weeks of the regular season, ESPN gives South Carolina a 12% chance to make the College Football Playoff, but those odds jump to 34% if the Gamecocks beat Wofford and Clemson.
To look at those numbers is to think about Jim Carrey giving the most perfect sly smirk in “Dumb and Dumber” as he says, “So you’re telling me there’s a chance.”
If there’s a chance, there’s a way. Here is a rooting guide, of sorts, for the Gamecocks fans trying to figure out what needs to happen for USC to make the 12-team playoff.
These are four games over the next two weeks that, if they break in favor of the underdog, South Carolina would be a major beneficiary.
Saturday, Nov. 23
No. 19 Army (9-0) vs. No. 6 Notre Dame (9-1)
Rooting interest: Army
Betting line: Notre Dame by 14
Despite its lone loss to Northern Illinois (6-4), Notre Dame still seemingly controls its own destiny into the College Football Playoff. But another loss might push the Fighting Irish of the playoff, perhaps making room for another SEC team.
And, though not probable, there is potential for a loss. Notre Dame closes out its season with a pair of somewhat formidable opponents. This week, it’ll take on undefeated Army at Yankee Stadium. The week after, the Irish will play at Southern Cal (5-5).
It shouldn’t be a tough task for Gamecocks fans to root against Notre Dame.
No. 9 Ole Miss (8-2) at Florida (5-5)
Rooting interest: Florida
Betting line: Ole Miss by 10.5
Yes, you have to root for Florida. The Gators are basically the last hope to hand Ole Miss another regular-season loss, considering the Rebels finish their season in the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State (2-8), which hasn’t won an SEC game this year.
According to ESPN’s analytics, Ole Miss has a 62% chance to make the 12-team playoff, but those odds drop 1% if the Rebels were to lose to Florida. And the possibility of an upset spiked after last Saturday when, behind freshman quarterback DJ Lagway, the Gators knocked off No. 22 LSU at home.
Because Ole Miss has a head-to-head win over South Carolina, it’s not a guarantee that a Rebels loss would vault USC over them. But Ole Miss would have losses to Kentucky, LSU and Florida — all of which aren’t in the CFP rankings. If the Gamecocks finished the year with a win over Clemson, the committee might give South Carolina an edge.
Saturday, Nov. 30
No. 11 Tennessee (8-2) at Vanderbilt (6-4)
Rooting interest: Vanderbilt
Betting line: TBD
Tennessee, like Ole Miss, is on the bubble of making the playoff. The ESPN projections gives the Volunteers a 66% chance to make the playoff, but that also drops to just 1% if they lose.
Tennessee probably isn’t falling this Saturday to UTEP (2-8), which brings us to their season finale at Vanderbilt. The Commodores haven’t beaten their rivals to the east since 2018, but this Vanderbilt team has already upset Alabama this season, so there’s precedent for some Nashville magic.
Plus, because South Carolina beat Vanderbilt a few weeks ago, it would help South Carolina’s case that much more.
No. 3 Texas (9-1) at No. 15 Texas A&M (8-2)
Rooting interest: Texas
Betting line: TBD
If Texas A&M beats Auburn on Saturday and then Texas in two weeks, the Aggies might not just earn a spot in the playoff but would play in the SEC Championship.
A Texas A&M loss — which seems most likely to come against its rival, No. 3 Texas — would really help the Gamecocks.
Because South Carolina beat Texas A&M in early November, it would be fair to assume that if the Gamecocks and Aggies both had three losses, South Carolina would jump the Aggies.
This story was originally published November 20, 2024 at 7:10 AM.
