Final thoughts, playoff scenarios, score prediction ahead of South Carolina vs. Clemson
No. 15 South Carolina (8-3, 5-3 SEC) concludes its regular season on Saturday at No. 12 Clemson (9-2, 7-1 ACC). Both teams need a victory to keep their hopes alive for the College Football Playoff.
Kickoff will be at noon and the game will air on ESPN.
Those are the facts. Here are some thoughts.
1. Could this high-stakes Palmetto Bowl be a regular occurrence?
College football fans sometimes think programs operate like the S&P 500. Naybe there’s an occasional dip, but for the most part it’s a nice, steady incline. If a team wins seven games one year, however, it doesn’t mean it’ll win nine the next.
A year ago, Missouri went 11-2, beat Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl and brought back its starting quarterback, its stud receivers and some pieces on defense. The Tigers were thought of as playoff contenders because, surely, teams keep getting better.
Missouri is 8-3 in 2024 and will not make the playoff.
The point is: These things are fickle. College football programs do not operate on this linear ascension.
No one ever wants to think that could be the case. Surely, Missouri fans were hopeful for a playoff season this year, just as South Carolina fans expected a special season after the Gamecocks went 8-5 in 2022.
On Tuesday, with the Gamecocks and Clemson both in the College Football Playoff hunt ahead of this weekend’s matchup, coach Shane Beamer made a declaration about the rivalry game moving forward.
“To me, this is going to be a yearly occurrence,” Beamer said. “We’re not going anywhere. Our program, we’re only continuing to ascend. And Dabo (Swinney) and Clemson have shown they’re not going anywhere.
“I think a battle of ranked Carolina versus ranked Clemson with playoff implications, in my mind, is gonna be a yearly occurrence around here. So everybody better get used to it.”
First of all, what a quote. Beamer is so good at this type of rah-rah stuff. And that’s genuine. If you’re a fan, booster, recruit, whoever, how does that not get you fired up? How does it not get you excited to go donate to the Garnet Trust or commit to the Gamecocks or smile all week long.
On the other hand, that is far from guaranteed. Aside from a three-year stretch under Steve Spurrier (2011-13), high-level success at South Carolina is an anomaly. Instead of thinking about what might happen over the next five seasons, just soak in this one.
2. College Football Playoff rooting guide
South Carolina needs some help to get into the College Football Playoff. The Gamecocks are ranked No. 15 and need some teams ahead of them to lose this week to boost their odds to make the 12-team field.
USC got a ton of help last week, when a half-dozen teams ranked ahead of them lost: No. 5 Indiana, No. 6 Alabama, No. 9 Ole Miss, No. 14 BYU, No. 15 Texas A&M and No. 16 Colorado.
So who should Gamecocks’ fans be rooting for this week to fall?
▪ No. 8 Tennessee (9-2) at Vanderbilt (6-5)
Rooting interest: Vanderbilt
Betting line: Tennessee by 10.5
South Carolina is on the outside looking in right now because it has three losses. So it needs more teams — like Tennessee — to also add another loss. The Gamecocks have played a tougher schedule and don’t have a defeat worse than the Vols losing to Arkansas.
The ESPN Playoff Predictor gives Tennessee just an 8% chance to make the playoff if it loses to Vanderbilt, which did beat No. 1 Alabama earlier in the year.
No. 5 Notre Dame (10-1) at Southern Cal (6-5)
Rooting interest: Southern Cal
Betting line: Notre Dame by 7.5
Since losing to Northern Illinois in September, Notre Dame has seemingly been one loss away from dropping out of the Top 12. Problem is: The Irish keep winning. Last week, they routed undefeated Army for a ninth-straight win.
If Notre Dame loses at Southern Cal on Saturday, ESPN’s Playoff Predictor still gives the Irish a 66% chance of making the playoff, but there’s a chance the Gamecocks — which have a far better strength of schedule — can jump Notre Dame.
No. 6 Miami (10-1) at Syracuse (8-3)
Rooting interest: Syracuse
Betting line: Miami by 11
OK, this one’s a tough pill to swallow but hear me out: If Miami loses, Clemson would go on to play No. 9 SMU in the ACC Championship. So this outcome would help out the Tigers. If Syracuse wins and South Carolina beats Clemson on Saturday, it would make USC’s resume look better, too.
Also, if Syracuse upsets Miami, it would all but ensure that the ACC is a one-bid league for the CFP. Miami would probably be out of the picture and only the ACC champion would make the field.
3. Do players today care about rivalries?
Players don’t care about rivalries these days. Or do they?
South Carolina brought in 22 kids from the transfer portal this offseason. It added plenty more the year before and the year before that. Perhaps some of those did not initially know South Carolina and Clemson were rivals.
Rivalries used to be bred over time, where every senior on the field had played in the game two or three times and spent years enduring the criticism or praise depending on the outcome.
And now? Some guys might play in three different rivalries during their career.
Last year Kyle Kennard was at Georgia Tech, getting ready for a rivalry game against Georgia. On Tuesday, he was asked about the South Carolina-Clemson rivalry and had to double-check and confirm that the Tigers won last year. And who can blame him for not being sure?
Even starting quarterback LaNorris Sellers, who grew up in South Carolina and has been in Columbia for two years, admitted he never watched the Palmetto Bowl growing up and is treating this year’s matchup “as just another game.”
Asked about this, Beamer pushed back a bit.
“I think they certainly care about the rivalry,” Beamer said. “I don’t think you can be here long without hearing about Clemson.”
Yet even if they don’t realize what the rivalry means, Beamer said, “once you get there and experience it and ride in on the bus and walk out there for pregame warmups, you know there’s a little bit of a different feel.”
4. South Carolina has to limit turnovers
Clemson has been especially good at winning the turnover battle this year.
The Tigers are plus-13 in turnover margin this season (T-3 in the country) compared with South Carolina, which is just plus-3 (T-45 in America).
Over the past four weeks, too, South Carolina has actually lost the turnover battle, 5-4, including throwing an interception and fumbling against Wofford last week.
Think about this: When South Carolina beat Clemson in 2022, the Gamecocks won the turnover battle, 3-2, and if the Tigers didn’t fumble a punt with just over two minutes to play, who knows how that one would’ve ended?
5. Rocket Sanders is going to have a big day
A week ago, Clemson gave up 288 rushing yards to The Citadel. Granted, the Bulldogs had never rushed more often in a game this year (55 times). That’s not a great mark for the Clemson defense.
South Carolina’s starting running back, playing in the final regular-season game of his college career, is probably licking his chops.
After rushing for 270 yards combined against Texas A&M and Vanderbilt, his numbers have dipped the past two weeks.
Perhaps this will be the game he breaks out again. He’s he’s only 179 rushing yards away from a 1,000-yard season and 201 yards from moving into 10th place on South Carolina’s single-season rushing list.
PREDICTION: South Carolina 38, Clemson 30
