South Carolina in the College Football Playoff? The case for and against the Gamecocks
In all likelihood, we will know Tuesday night if South Carolina is going to make the College Football Playoff.
Before the final rankings on Sunday, the playoff committee will release its penultimate rankings on at 7 p.m. Tuesday on ESPN. It will be then that we will learn how the 13-person committee — athletic directors, former coaches, former players and a reporter — stacks the trio of three-loss SEC teams still in the hunt: South Carolina, Ole Miss and Alabama.
Based upon last week’s rankings and the ensuing slate of games, it seems like a good bet that just one of those three will make the playoff. In coming to that conclusion, we have made these assumptions.
1. The five highest-ranked conference champions will make the field.
2. Notre Dame (11-1) will make it.
3. Tennessee (10-2) as well as the loser of the SEC Championship between Georgia (10-2) and Texas (11-1) will be included.
4. Indiana, Ohio State and the loser of the Big 10 Championship between Oregon (12-0) and Penn State (11-1) will have a spot.
That’s 11 teams.
Now, there is a chance a second ACC team could make the field. Perhaps Miami (10-2) — which lost on Saturday to Syracuse — doesn’t drop below any of the three-loss SEC teams. And maybe Clemson (9-3) steals a bid by winning the ACC Championship and, even with a loss, the committee still keeps SMU (11-1) in the field.
That is the worst nightmare of Shane Beamer, Kalen DeBoer, Lane Kiffin and SEC commissioner Greg Sankey.
But if it is, indeed, one of those three-loss SEC teams that gets into the dance, why couldn’t it be South Carolina? Here’s the case for and against putting the Gamecocks into the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff.
The case AGAINST South Carolina making the playoff
The argument for leaving the Gamecocks out is quite simple — so simple that it really does overshadow the complexity of the committee’s decision: How could you rank South Carolina over Alabama and Ole Miss when it lost to both?
That is the argument against the Gamecocks, and it’s compelling. At some point, the games have to matter … even though the Gamecocks played both of those teams almost two months ago. Even though they haven’t lost since that Alabama game. Even though both the Rebels and Crimson Tide have faltered twice since beating South Carolina.
In last week’s rankings, the committee slotted the trio in this order: No. 13 Alabama, No. 14 Ole Miss and No. 15 South Carolina. Since then, the Gamecocks were the only team to beat a ranked opponent, knocking off No. 12 Clemson.
But in explaining last Tuesday why the Tide and the Rebels were ahead of South Carolina, College Football Playoff committee chairman Warde Manuel said that was because they had head-to-head wins.
Perhaps that changes with South Carolina adding another good win, or perhaps the committee stays firm.
And if only one spot is up for grabs, one would have to imagine it comes down to Alabama or South Carolina, given the College Football Power Index that favors the Tide and Gamecocks over the Rebels.
And if the committee decides Alabama is more-deserving than South Carolina, it will because Alabama’s victory over Georgia in September is more impressive than any victory the Gamecocks have.
The case FOR South Carolina making the playoff
At some point, surely the committee has to overlook head-to-head results in the effort to truly select the 12 best teams.
And, well, they have shown a willingness to do that already this year — with South Carolina.
Just three weeks ago, the committee put South Carolina at No. 21 and LSU at No. 22 despite both teams holding 6-3 records and the Tigers having the head-to-head victory.
So there is precedent. There is also the fact that, aside from the head-to-head result, the resumes of South Carolina and Alabama are quite similar.
Strength of schedule: South Carolina 15th // Alabama 17th
Record vs. ranked teams (based on last week’s CFP poll): South Carolina 3-2 // Alabama 3-1
Losses to unranked teams: South Carolina 1 (LSU) // Alabama 2 (Vandy and Oklahoma)
If the committee is going to go strictly by resume, Alabama — holding the head-to-head win over South Carolina — will get in over the Gamecocks.
But if the committee places an emphasis on who is playing better football right now, who passes the eye test right now, who is hotter right now, the Gamecocks will jump into the playoff.
South Carolina has won its last six games, beating two ranked teams in that span. In the same stretch, Alabama is 4-2 with losses to Tennessee and a 17-point loss to an Oklahoma team that is still having nightmares about the Gamecocks’ pass rush.
And in its worst defeat — vs. LSU — South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers missed the entire second half. If the committee truly takes into account major injuries, as it says it does, that only boosts how South Carolina should be viewed.
In the same way Alabama is a different team since beating Georgia in September, South Carolina is a completely-changed squad since barely faltering to the Tide seven weeks ago. Shouldn’t the team ascending be rewarded over the group that seems to have gotten worse over the season?
And to find the precedent of that, we have to go back all of one year. Back to when the playoff committee decided that one-loss Alabama should be in over undefeated Florida State because the Crimson Tide was healthier and playing better.
If that same logic is used in 2024, South Carolina should be in the playoff.
