Where ESPN’s FPI predictor ranks South Carolina, Clemson ahead of 2025 season
We are a few months away from the real preseason fodder that includes the release of conference media polls and the initial Associated Press Top 25. For now, thank goodness for ESPN to indulge us with some predictions.
ESPN released its FPI (Football Power Index) rankings this week, full of projections and percentages that are somehow formulated through data and predictive calculations.
With just under three months until the start of the 2025 season, its has an all-SEC Top Three of Texas, Georgia and Alabama.
Clemson, coming off a 10-4 season that included an ACC title and a spot in the College Football Playoff, comes in at No. 11 — which, among ACC teams, was only behind Miami (No. 9).
Meanwhile, despite beating Clemson last season en route to a 9-4 finish, South Carolina is ranked No. 15. That sounds decent until you realize that ESPN’s FPI metric placed eight SEC teams above the Gamecocks.
Whatever calculations go into the FPI, it’s clear the metric is high on the Southeastern Conference. One spot ahead of South Carolina in the 2025 rankings is Auburn, a squad that finished 5-7 last season. And one spot below the Gamecocks is Oklahoma, which went 6-7 last season and lost to USC by nearly four touchdowns.
Let’s dive a little deeper into some of the FPI’s predictions.
It projects Clemson to snag 9.7 wins next year, helped in part by the 40th-hardest schedule in the country, per the predictor.
ESPN’s FPI gives the Tigers a 98% probability to make a bowl game, a 34% chance to win the ACC and a 47.3% shot to make the College Football Playoff. But the odds drop to 7% for the Tigers to make the national title game and just 2.8% for them to win it all.
While slim, Clemson’s 2.8% chance to win the national title is the seventh-best odds of any team. That’s quite a ways below top team Texas, which the FPI gives nearly a 25% bet to win it all.
And though South Carolina has just a 1% hope to win the national championship and just a 1.8% glimmer to win the SEC, the FPI metric gives the Gamecocks more than a 20% shot to make the College Football Playoff. As for USC to make a bowl for the second straight year? That’s a 82.4% likelihood, ESPN says.
Surprisingly, South Carolina has one of the easier strength of schedules among SEC teams. FPI’s calculations put the Gamecocks’ 2025 schedule as No. 15 in the country, lower than all but four SEC teams.
South Carolina’s 2025 football schedule
- Aug. 31: vs. Virginia Tech, in Atlanta, 3 p.m. (ESPN)
- Sept. 6: vs. S.C. State, 7 p.m. (ESPN+ or SEC Network Plus)
- Sept. 13: vs. Vanderbilt, 7 or 7:45 p.m. (ESPN or SEC Network)
- Sept. 20: at Missouri
- Sept. 27: vs. Kentucky
- Oct. 4: BYE WEEK
- Oct. 11: at LSU
- Oct. 18: vs. Oklahoma
- Oct. 25: vs. Alabama
- Nov. 1: at Ole Miss
- Nov. 8: BYE WEEK
- Nov. 15: at Texas A&M
- Nov. 22: vs. Coastal Carolina
- Nov. 29: vs. Clemson
