South Carolina trending toward lower-tier SEC bowl in latest projections
South Carolina was surrounded by hype going into the 2025 football season. The Gamecocks ranked 13th in The Associated Press preseason poll and was projected by two ESPN pundits to make the College Football Playoff.
Now, after reaching their first bye week following a 35-13 win against Kentucky, the Gamecocks are 3-2 overall (1-1 in the SEC) and trending downward in bowl projections. USC would need to pick up three more regular-season wins against a tough slate to reach bowl eligibility.
Bowl projections can give an idea of whether analysts think USC can reach that mark, and how many — if any — additional wins it’ll pick up beyond the bowl-eligible threshold.
Most outlets have the Gamecocks in a lower-tier SEC bowl, and one has them missing the postseason entirely. Here’s where USC stands among the major projections:
CBS Sports: No bowl game
The only major projection to leave out the Gamecocks, CBS Sports has three SEC teams in the College Football Playoff and seven additional programs placed in the remaining SEC bowl offerings. In the Gasparilla Bowl, which allows for American, ACC or SEC teams to participate, the projection has Memphis facing off against Virginia. The projection clearly believes the Gamecocks will fall short of six wins.
On3 Sports: Texas Bowl vs. TCU (Dec. 27)
The Texas Bowl, held at the Houston Texans’ NRG Stadium, may be the most favorable projection of the bunch. Last season, it featured two eight-win teams as LSU defeated Baylor 44-31. The year prior, nine-win and No. 16-ranked Oklahoma State defeated seven-win Texas A&M. The projection suggests USC will land somewhere within that range.
TCU is 3-1 this year, with its biggest wins coming against North Carolina and SMU. It fell 27-24 against No. 25 Arizona State this weekend. The Horned Frogs still received six votes in this week’s AP poll despite the loss.
Athlon Sports: Liberty Bowl vs. Baylor (Jan. 2)
The Liberty Bowl, played in Memphis, Tennessee, featured two Power 4 teams with seven wins last season, Texas Tech and Arkansas. The year prior, nine-win Memphis made the bowl, but likely in part due to it being a hometown game. The Tigers defeated seven-win Iowa State 36-26. This current projection suggests USC reaches seven wins in 2025.
Baylor, like the Gamecocks, has also had an up-and-down season at 3-2. The Bears took down SMU in overtime and have wins against Samford and Oklahoma State, the latter playing without fired head coach Mike Gundy. It’s two top matchups against Auburn and Arizona State resulted in losses.
Sports Illustrated: Birmingham Bowl vs. Tulsa (Dec. 29)
The Birmingham Bowl doesn’t come across as the most glamorous postseason game, but it’s had some interesting matchups in recent seasons.
Last year, it hosted seven-win Georgia Tech and six-win Vanderbilt, two power conference teams that picked up big wins against the likes of Florida State and Alabama. The year prior, it saw 11-win Troy (another likely home-state pick) fall to seven-win Duke. Considering South Carolina’s conference prestige, it probably suggests a cap of seven wins for the Gamecocks.
Tulsa has underperformed at 2-3, but picked up a win against Oklahoma State in Mike Gundy’s final game as the Cowboys’ coach two weeks ago.
ESPN: Birmingham Bowl vs. East Carolina, or Liberty Bowl vs. BYU
ESPN falls in line with the majority of predictions, placing South Carolina at around seven wins and in a lower-tier bowl. But it does project some interesting opponents. East Carolina is 3-2 with losses to its biggest opponents, N.C. State and No. 23 BYU. Both the Pirates and the Gamecocks could very well enter with the same record and make for a solid Carolinas bowl matchup.
BYU is perhaps the most interesting of USC’s projected opponents from any model. The Cougars are a perfect 4-0 to start the year after an early bye in Week 3. This projection means ESPN’s Mark Schlabach expects BYU to skid at least some in its remaining schedule. The Cougars could take on the Gamecocks in a matchup where both sides are looking to salvage a once-promising season.
South Carolina football remaining schedule
- Oct. 11 at LSU
- Oct. 18 vs. Oklahoma
- Oct. 25 vs. Alabama
- Nov. 1 at Ole Miss
- Nov. 15 at Texas A&M
- Nov. 22 vs. Coastal Carolina
- Nov. 29 vs. Clemson - Noon (ABC or ESPN)
