South Carolina football has seven games left. Which ones are most winnable?
Looking ahead to South Carolina’s next five games could make you almost queasy, roll your eyes and make you wonder where a win is coming from.
Though the Gamecocks end the season against unranked Coastal Carolina and Clemson at home, their next five opponents are ranked in the Top 15 of the AP poll right now: No. 13 LSU, No. 5 Oklahoma, No. 10 Alabama, No. 4 Ole Miss and No. 6 Texas A&M.
Asked about this stretch, about keeping his team focused on the next game (at LSU on Oct. 11) rather than the next month, Gamecocks coach Shane Beamer tried to convey confidence.
“As a competitor, you want that. And that’s life in the SEC, man,” Beamer said. “But at the end of the day, in my mind, those teams have to play us, too.”
Of course, you can do the math: South Carolina (3-2, 1-2 SEC) needs to win out to achieve the fifth 10-win season in program history. It also needs at least three wins to become bowl-eligible for the second-straight season.
So let’s dive in. What are the Gamecocks’ most-winnable games from here on out? Here’s a breakdown, in order of how we view South Carolina’s chances for a victory.
1. vs. Coastal Carolina (Nov. 22)
- South Carolina’s win percentage, per ESPN analytics: 95.6%
Even by Group-of-5 standards, the Chanticleers are bad this year. They are 2-2 after losing by 41 to Virginia in their season opener and got shut out by East Carolina a few weeks later.
Coastal Carolina teams of years past might have given South Carolina a good run, but it would be shocking if this game were close.
2. vs. Clemson (Nov. 29)
- South Carolina’s win percentage, per ESPN analytics: 69.9%
It feels darn near sacrilegious to have Clemson this high — especially when you consider two things: The home team hasn’t won the Palmetto Bowl since 2018; and Beamer’s two wins over Clemson were both when USC was an underdog.
But look at Clemson ... and then look at the SEC teams South Carolina has to play. The Tigers don’t compare.
They are 1-3 and in disarray. The defense — loaded with a hoard of potential draft picks — can’t stop anyone and their offense looks completely out of sorts.
3. at LSU (Oct. 11)
- South Carolina’s win percentage, per ESPN analytics: 29.8%
This is based on LSU not being as good as its 4-1 record and that the Tigers, who lost to Ole Miss last week, haven’t beaten anyone of substance. Their four wins are over Clemson, Louisiana Tech, Florida and Southeastern Louisiana.
And then there’s the fact that LSU’s offense is in shambles. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier hasn’t lived up to the preseason hype and the Tigers have the second-worst rushing offense in the SEC — just a tad better than the Gamecocks.
Of course, this is a night game at Tiger Stadium — which LSU rarely loses — but the Gamecocks do have a shot.
4. vs. Oklahoma (Oct. 18)
- South Carolina’s win percentage, per ESPN analytics: 41.3%
This one was tough to place simply because it’s unclear whether Oklahoma’s starting quarterback will play. John Mateer recently underwent surgery on his hand, and it seems like a coin flip on whether he’ll play against the Gamecocks.
But even if he doesn’t, the Sooners’ defense is elite. They’ve allowed just over 8 points a game this season while averaging four sacks.
5. at Texas A&M (Nov. 15)
- South Carolina’s win percentage, per ESPN analytics: 29.2%
Texas A&M has just proven it can win all sorts of different games this year. It beat Notre Dame 41-40 on the road then, two weeks later, squeaked out a 16-10 victory over Auburn.
The Aggies have not proven to be exceptional in any one category, but are just a solid all-around squad. It also doesn’t help that the Gamecocks haven’t won in Kyle Field ... ever (0-5)
6. vs. Alabama (Oct. 25)
- South Carolina’s win percentage, per ESPN analytics: 21.7%
It was hard to watch the Crimson Tide pull out a win at Georgia last week and think the Gamecocks have much of a chance in this game. Granted, Alabama also beat Georgia last year and, well, South Carolina nearly pulled out the win.
The difference: Alabama has upgraded its offensive line and quarterback (Ty Simpson) since 2024.
One potential positive for South Carolina: The Crimson Tide has yet to prove it can stop a mobile quarterback. In Florida State’s season-opening win over Alabama, FSU QB Thomas Castellanos rushed for 78 yards without being sacked.
7. at Ole Miss (Nov. 1)
- South Carolina’s win percentage, per ESPN analytics: 19.8%
The Rebels have transformed into a different team since handing the offensive reigns to QB Trinidad Chambliss, who might be one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the SEC.
Ole Miss has proven to be exceptional offensively. On defense, its biggest weakness is stopping the run — the Rebels have allowed over 163 yards per game on the ground.
That sounds good for South Carolina, until you remember the Gamecocks haven’t proven it can run the ball against anyone.
