5 final thoughts, score prediction for South Carolina vs. Oklahoma football game
South Carolina is back at Williams-Brice Stadium, playing in the dreaded “state fair game.”
Coming off a loss at LSU last week, the Gamecocks (3-3, 1-3 SEC) are set to kick off against No. 14 Oklahoma (5-1, 1-1 SEC) at 12:45 p.m. on Saturday. As of Thursday afternoon, the Sooners were favored by 5.5 points. The game will be televised on SEC Network.
Those are some facts. Here are some thoughts.
1. Bowl eligibility might hinge on Saturday
The ultimate success of South Carolina’s season might come down to Saturday.
OK, maybe that’s a bit dramatic ... but maybe it’s not.
Coming off a loss to LSU, the Gamecocks play four straight games against Top-15 SEC opponents before finishing their season with home games against Coastal Carolina and Clemson.
No doubt, South Carolina will be favored against Coastal. So for those doing the math, that’s four wins. The Gamecocks might also be favored against Clemson, but any Palmetto Bowl is a toss-up at best. Let’s give South Carolina a massive benefit of the doubt and say it pulls out a victory over the Tigers. That’s five wins on the season.
Which means to reach bowl eligibility (six wins), South Carolina needs to win one of its next four games against conference foes: vs. No. 14 Oklahoma, vs. No. 6 Alabama, at No. 5 Mississippi and at No. 4 Texas A&M.
Per ESPN analytics, the Gamecocks aren’t projected to win any of those games. But, per those same analytics (and common sense), South Carolina’s best chance at another conference win — by far — comes on Saturday against the Sooners.
Beat Oklahoma on Saturday and getting to six wins feels doable. If South Carolina loses, it would have to pull a massive SEC upset ... and beat Clemson. Good luck.
2. Not the week for O-Line problems
South Carolina fired offensive-line coach Lonnie Teasley last week after the Gamecocks allowed five sacks and committed six penalties against LSU, moving tight ends coach Shawn Elliott to take over the O-Line.
The change comes after the Gamecocks allowed 20 sacks and were flagged 15 times through six games. And if that wasn’t enough for Oklahoma’s defensive front to lick their lips, the news of a coaching change had to make them even more giddy.
This is perhaps the worst-possible week to have change and uncertainty on the offensive line. Oklahoma’s defense is that good.
The Sooners’ defense leads the SEC in points allowed (9.33 per game), yards allowed (211.2 per game), passing yards allowed (126.3 per game) and first-downs allowed (11.2) per game. It is a Top-3 SEC defense in rushing defense (84.8 yards per game), third-down conversions allowed (25.6%) and, most-notably, sacks (3.66 a game)
If the Gamecocks have any chance at protecting QB LaNorris Sellers and winning the football game, South Carolina’s offensive line must be massively improved.
3. Sellers has time ... sort of
It has been tough this season to determine how much of the blame for South Carolina’s sacks falls on the offensive line and how much falls on Sellers.
The answer is probably in the middle.
Watching back the LSU game, you almost start to feel bad for Sellers. There was just constant pressure up the middle all night. And it wasn’t just one Tiger who broke into the backfield with an angle to Sellers. It was multiple guys coming from every angle.
At times, he was able to scramble around, break a tackle or two and pick up a few yards.
But, too often, the pressure would come and he’d stand there for a half-second too long — which, admittedly, is much easier to say when you’re not the one in the pocket with three guys trying to tear off your face.
Yet, the numbers paint a glaring picture. Per Pro Football Focus, among all FBS quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs, Sellers has more time to throw than anyone else (3.36 seconds).
That sounds like a good thing. It’s not.
Sellers knows his offensive line is subpar. He knows that these SEC defenses are pinning their ears back trying to sack him. And, yet, he’s holding the ball for an average of nearly 3-and-a-half seconds on every dropback. And, before you ask, that doesn’t even include his scrambles. On plays where things break down and Sellers scrambles in the pocket, his average time to throw jumps to 5.60 seconds.
That can’t happen. First, OC Mike Shula needs to design more plays that allow Sellers to release the ball quicker or that have fewer reads. And second, Sellers needs to have a better internal clock — one, two ... run or throw it away.
It doesn’t seem like this offensive line is going to magically get better, which means it’s up to Shula and Sellers to find more ways to avoid sacks.
4. Shula vs. Venables
Listen to how South Carolina coach Shane Beamer what challenge Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables — who calls the Sooners’ defense — presents for opposing offenses.
“They just do so much,” Beamer said of the OU defense. “So much. Like you play Missouri — OK, they’re gonna play pretty much man-free coverage and these are gonna be their top pressures. ... Man, it’s a lot of defense (with OU).
“They get after it,” Beamer continued. “They play the play harder than the opposing offenses most of the time. ... And then just the volume of defense they do — multiple fronts, multiple coverages, multiple pressures.”
It is that creative, intense, dynamic defense facing a South Carolina offense that has been about as bland as a Saltine.
And, in fairness to Shula, he might not have the personnel up front to execute a wildly-creative offense. The greatest play in the world won’t work if the quarterback is running for his life within a second.
But this is going to be Shula’s toughest test to date. Can he counter the different looks Venables will present? Can he adjust to how Oklahoma’s front is attacking? Can he draw up plays that buy Sellers time — perhaps moving the pocket or having Sellers roll out to split the field?
Oklahoma is going to throwing everything but the kitchen sink at Shula. How he responds might be the difference in Saturday’s game.
5. Lesson learned after Fuller mishap
Many South Carolina fans were right to point out how egregious it was that after housing a 72-yard touchdown late in the first quarter against LSU, Matthew Fuller didn’t take another handoff until the second half.
Beamer even admitted later that he told the coaching staff — which must’ve been dead set on their RB rotation — to get Fuller back in the game.
By the time he got back in the game, though, the magic had worn off.
But some credit should go to RBs coach Marquel Blackwell, because once tailback Rahsul Faison got going in the second half — ripping off solid run after solid run — the Gamecocks stuck with him.
PREDICTION: Oklahoma 23, South Carolina 16
