5 final thoughts, prediction for South Carolina vs. No. 4 Alabama football game
South Carolina returns to Williams-Brice Stadium on Saturday afternoon, trying to right its season against No. 4 Alabama (6-1, 4-0 SEC).
The Gamecocks (3-4, 1-4) have not won in nearly a month and desperately need a victory to avoid missing a bowl game for the second time in three seasons.
The game kicks off at 3:30 p.m. and will be broadcast on ABC.
Those are some facts. Here are some thoughts.
1. There might be apologies on Saturday
OK, let’s say the impossible happens and South Carolina — an 11.5-point underdog — beats the Crimson Tide.
There will need to be plenty of apologies to both coach Shane Beamer and offensive coordinator Mike Shula, who have taken a ridiculous amount of criticism over the past two weeks. Heck, just this week, some South Carolina students held a protest demanding Shula be fired.
You know things are bad when students exercise their right to organize a protest over — checks notes — play-calling.
Beamer and Shula both deserve blame for the horrid start to this season. But should they find a way to right the ship against an Alabama team that looks as dominant as anyone not named Ohio State and Indiana, they should be rewarded with, one, forgiveness, and two, praise.
For what it’s worth, I sensed zero quit in South Carolina’s players during USC’s 26-7 loss against No. 13 Oklahoma. This is still a team that’s fighting. Now, it’s also a team that hasn’t been put in the best spots to succeed, and also might not have the personnel to win these SEC games.
But we’ve seen plenty of incredible one-week turnarounds in college football this season. If South Carolina can add its name to the list, I will be the first one to raise my hand and say that Beamer was right and that the Gamecocks were closer than we thought.
2. There is no evidence a turnaround is coming
If South Carolina somehow wins and someone tells you, “I knew the Gamecocks were gonna pull that out,” you will have just met a liar.
There is no proof that South Carolina has a chance of winning on Saturday.
It has the worst scoring offense in the SEC. The worst rushing offense in the conference. The second-worst offense on third down. And Alabama features the SEC’s best quarterback (Ty Simpson) along with some of the most-talented skill players the Gamecocks will face all season.
Just based on that alone, it’s hard to fathom South Carolina scoring more points than the Tide.
If South Carolina wins, it will be because it drastically changed the offense — either simplifying the playbook or adding myriad new wrinkles that completely catch Alabama off guard.
Sure, that’s possible. But, conventional wisdom tells you those changes would have been made against LSU (after the bye week) or against Oklahoma (after OL coach Lonnie Teasley was fired).
The only reason for a massive shift now — in late October — is pure desperation. Buy, hey, desperation forces creativity.
3. Gamecocks have to win the turnover battle
You might read that and think, ‘Well, duh,’ and you’re probably right.
But consider: Despite its poor record, South Carolina has shown great ball security this season, losing three fumbles and throwing just five interceptions (only two by QB LaNorris Sellers).
The problem is that Alabama has been elite. The Crimson Tide holds the third-best turnover margin in America (+9). This is a team that makes very few game-changing mistakes and has a knack for forcing its opponents into turnovers at the worst times. Just ask Tennessee.
The Gamecocks have at least stayed in games because of their lack of turnovers. Granted, they haven’t been able to actually win those games, but if this is the week USC gets over the hump it needs Sellers to play turnover-free football and its defense to probably force two or more turnovers.
4. Will a healthier OL make a difference?
To be fair to South Carolina, it was down three starting offensive linemen heading into the Oklahoma game ... then lost three more O-linemen over the course of the game. They were throwing out unprepared true freshman against one of the best defenses in the SEC. It went how you’d expect.
Against Alabama, Beamer said he expects every offensive lineman — aside from Cason Henry, who might miss the entire season — to be healthy.
Is that going to be enough to keep Sellers upright?
I have my doubts. Offensive lines usually only improve after they have continuity, after they play beside each other for hundreds of snaps. That’s going to be impossible against the Tide.
Sure, the Gamecocks will get guys like center Nolan Hay and guard Shed Sarratt healthy for Saturday. The problem? Those guys have hardly any reps together. This entire line — either by injuries or poor play — has shuffled so much this season that it’s unreasonable to expect them to miraculously gel against Alabama.
5. 15-year anniversary of the upset
On Saturday, South Carolina will honor the 2010 team that won the SEC East and beat No. 1 Alabama on that magical afternoon inside Williams-Brice.
At SEC Media Days a few months ago, I spoke with former Crimson Tide QB Greg McIlroy about his memories from that game.
“We were disappointed. It was the first game we’d lost in 19 games,” he said. “I remember going home that night being devastated.”
When asked about the specifics of the game, the first thing McIlroy remembered was that — even with running backs Mark Ingram II and Trent Richardson — they could not run the ball against the Gamecocks that day. The final stats — 29 carries for 36 yards — backs that up.
The next memory: Watching South Carolina’s offense play a nearly perfect game.
“I remember every time we got them in a situation where it felt like we were going to get them off the field defensively, they’d make a play,” he said. “Like Alshon (Jeffery) would make a play. Or they’d call a perfect screen to Marcus (Lattimore).”
He continued: “With the way (USC coach Steve) Spurrier called the game, with how Alshon played, we probably weren’t gonna win that game. You could replay that game 100 times and if they called the same script the way they did, it was going to be hard for us to win.”
PREDICTION: Alabama 31, South Carolina 17
