South Carolina MBB crafts lighter non-conference schedule. Will it pay off?
With a record 14 bids in the 2025 NCAA Tournament, the Southeastern Conference held the top spot in men’s basketball a season ago.
After being just one of two SEC teams to miss the NCAA tournament last season, in part thanks to a 2-16 league record, Lamont Paris and his South Carolina team understand the challenge that awaits in conference play for the 2025-26 season.
“You had a year in this conference that was unlike any year of college basketball ever,” Paris said. “It’s easy to look back and say ‘Well, we didn’t do this really well.’ Well, we didn’t do that very well relative to this very unique group of teams that we had.”
While the Gamecocks don’t know for sure if this year’s SEC will provide the same level of challenges this season, it’s clear they’re not taking any chances — particularly with their non-conference schedule. Based on last year’s KenPom data, USC’s upcoming 2025-26 non-conference schedule averages a -3.62 NET rating and an average rank of 215. Four of the Gamecocks’ non-conference opponents this season finished outside of the top 300 last year, while only three finished within the top 100.
In a nutshell, South Carolina went with a lighter non-conference schedule, something that’s fairly common among power conference programs. But it comes with a risk.
Even if the Gamecocks improve in the SEC and finish with a .500 conference record or better, a poor non-conference showing could keep them out of the NCAA Tournament.
The regular season begins Nov. 4. So how many games can USC afford to lose before its conference schedule begins? These three programs from last season help draw a clearer picture:
The good: Missouri
The 2024-25 Tigers serve as the best model for what South Carolina would hope to achieve with this year’s non-conference schedule. Mizzou went 20-10 last year in the regular season and 10-8 in the SEC. Despite barely going above .500 in conference play, and having two losses in its 355th-ranked non-conference schedule, Missouri earned a No. 6 seeding in the NCAA Tournament.
How? Well for one, staying afloat in the SEC was enough to turn heads last season. On top of that, the Tigers beat No. 1 Kansas in non-conference play. Missouri’s two non-conference losses came to Memphis and Illinois. Both teams finished top-100 in the NET rankings and made the tournament.
Using Mizzou as reference, the Gamecocks will need to go 1-2 against its three top-100 NET teams — Clemson, Butler and Northwestern — while losing no other non-conference games if they want to be a tournament lock. This is, of course, assuming USC also hangs around in the SEC.
The bad: Georgia Tech
What happened to the Yellow Jackets last season is a good example of what it would look like for the Gamecocks’ non-conference schedule to blow up in their faces.
Georgia Tech went 10-10 in the ACC, which would be a solid result for USC in its conference. However, the Yellow Jackets lost five games in its 349th-ranked non-conference schedule. Even though four of those five losses came to ranked opponents, it’s simply too much to overlook.
So the range is in place for the Gamecocks: Two losses to good teams is probably fine, but five losses, regardless of competition, is likely too much. So where’s the cutoff?
The bubble: West Virginia
Answering that question requires taking a look at West Virginia. The Mountaineers had the lowest-ranked non-conference strength of schedule of the “first four out” teams last season and a 10-10 record in the Big 12. So how’d they do in non-conference play?
It turns out, West Virginia’s non-conference record looked much like Missouri’s. The Mountaineers had only two losses before conference play, both to top-100 teams in Louisville and Pitt. They also beat No. 3 Gonzaga in the Battle for Atlantis tournament. It seems the key difference was Missouri playing in an conference with seven more tournament bids than the Big 12.
The answer is ... somewhat clear
If South Carolina can become even a middling SEC team, it can probably get away with two non-conference losses. But those losses have to come against Butler, Northwestern or Clemson, while finding a way to beat one of those teams. If the Gamecocks drop a game similar to the North Florida game last season, it would likely be a tournament dreams killer for USC regardless of its SEC record.
