What would USC MBB win over Georgia do for season outlook? 3 things to watch

South Carolina picked up its biggest win of the season Tuesday night against LSU, marking the first Quad 1 victory of the season for the Gamecocks.

USC now will face arguably the biggest challenge of the season so far: Keeping momentum rolling and picking up back-to-back Quad 1 wins, one that would represent the Gamecocks’ first quality victory in front of their home crowd.

“Hopefully we’ve just got some guys that feel good about what they did in this last performance,” head coach Lamont Paris said. “We got some shots up this week, and hopefully they can carry that over into the game.”

USC (10-5, 1-1 SEC) takes on the No. 18 Georgia Bulldogs (13-2, 1-1 SEC), led by fourth-year head coach Mike White, Saturday at 2 p.m. (ESPN2) in Colonial Life Arena.

Georgia is coming off a 92-77 loss to rival Florida.

How much would a win actually do for the Gamecocks, and what are the odds it actually happens?

Confidence, internal and external

It’s not inaccurate to say most outsiders were low on the Gamecocks headed into the 2025-26 season. USC was picked in the preseason poll to finish last in the SEC for the third time in Paris’ four seasons at the helm. It was also ranked No. 86 in the preseason KenPom NET rankings, the lowest rank of any SEC team by 28 spots (Oklahoma was second to last at No. 58).

But the Gamecocks saw a big boost to its analytical rankings after their 78-68 win in Baton Rouge. USC jumped 18 spots in the NET to No. 68, ahead of lowest-rated SEC team Mississippi State at No. 78 and just behind Ole Miss at No. 67

Similarly, BartTorvik’s T-Ranketology model increased its projection of USC’s chances to make the NCAA Tournament from 0.1% to 1.3% after Tuesday’s win. It’s not significant overall, but it’s still a jump. The model’s projection of USC’s chances at an at-large NCAA bid remains 0%.

A USC win Saturday over a top-30 NET opponent would likely boost the numbers even more in favor of the Gamecocks.

Regardless of external confidence, it would also do big things for the Gamecocks’ confidence internally. The win over LSU is a prime example, as Paris said he felt everyone’s mood has been lifted at practice since the win.

“If mood is an indication of confidence, then yeah, the confidence was certainly higher,” Paris said. “But only they are themselves, so hopefully something inside is just really triggered to say that they really have some belief in what this unit could do, and then how they could perform individually.”

What are the odds?

A win would no doubt help the Gamecocks, but how likely is a win? Well, Georgia is certainly not the easiest matchup for the Gamecocks.

The Bulldogs have found success this season by picking up the tempo and scoring as many points as they can. They average the most points (97.9) and field goal attempts (68.2) in the SEC this season. UGA averages 81 possessions per game, the most in NCAA Division I and an increase from 70.5 per game last season.

A big reason the Bulldogs are able to play fast and in transition is because of their roster featuring eight players standing 6-foot-8 or taller. All that length, particularly in the front court, allows Georgia to force the sixth-highest opponent turnover average in the country (16.3 per game) and score points on the resulting fast breaks.

“There’s still no good defense that’s been devised to go against the pick six,” Paris said. “So you have to take care of the ball. You have to be cognizant about getting back in transition, and then you’ve got to just locate your man really early.”

Availability report looks good for USC

If there’s anything going for the Gamecocks, it’s that they could be fully manned on Saturday. Forward Christ Essandoko, who’s missed three games since Dec. 30 with an ankle injury, was a full participant in practice Friday.

Essandoko was listed probable on the initial SEC availability report Friday night. Paris said he expects Essandoko to have “some availability” against Georgia.

However, freshman guard Grant Polk made his first appearance on the availability report this season as questionable. He’s averaging 5.4 points in 14.3 minutes per game off the bench for USC.

The Bulldogs are 3.5-point favorites to win Saturday, according to the VegasInsider consensus line which factors in multiple sportsbooks. ESPN Analytics’ matchup predictor gives UGA a 58.1% chance to win.