Breaking down the issue that’s been South Carolina’s ‘nemesis’ in four losses
Over the course of one quarter Sunday afternoon, the South Carolina women’s basketball team saw its chances of an SEC regular season title diminish dramatically.
At halftime, the Gamecocks trailed Texas A&M 35-34. ESPN’s win probability chart had the game as basically a toss-up, with the Gamecocks’ chances around 47%. But in the course of a 19-8 third quarter, USC’s percentage dropped to less than 4%.
What went wrong in those fateful 10 minutes?
“Missed layups,” coach Dawn Staley said. “It’s been the nemesis of our four losses and sprinkled in between. And I just think it forced us to have to defend and they got out in transition and they were able to score. They controlled the tempo a little bit during that stretch. But it’s deflating when you’ve missed the layup and you go back and give up an easy bucket at the other end.”
Indeed, the game’s official play-by-play account has South Carolina going just 2 of 6 on layups in that third quarter. And as Staley mentioned, the Gamecocks’ struggles with those high-percentage shots did not come completely out of nowhere. It’s been a topic she’s hit on multiple times throughout the course of the season as a key in the few bumps of USC’s 19-4 record. And it’s something she even briefly mentioned last season as a potential area of improvement for what was then the No. 1 team in the country.
Teams track layups in different ways and it’s not an exact figure, but combing through statistics and play-by-play logs can put some numbers behind the struggles Staley has seen as the Gamecocks prepare to enter the SEC tournament.
In USC’s four losses this year — to N.C. State, UConn, Tennessee and Texas A&M — the Gamecocks have shot a combined 57 of 122 on shots that were accounted for as layups, a 46.7% rate.
Layups, especially in transition where Staley and the Gamecocks like to play, are typically considered high-percentage looks, “bunnies” in the terminology of some coaches and commentators. Teams aren’t expected to make all of them, but making less than half means leaving a lot of points on the table.
South Carolina’s four losses have come by a combined 30 points, or the equivalent of 15 layups. To make up that gap, USC would have had to have shot 59% on the 122 attempts it had in the defeats.
That’s a mark the Gamecocks have exceeded in their wins this year. Over the course of 19 victories, Carolina has shot 61.8% on layups. In only four of those wins did USC miss more than half its layup attempts, compared to three of the losses.
Of course, it’s all easier said than done. Most of South Carolina’s layup attempts this season haven’t come with wide-open looks. Opposing teams have packed the paint, often doubling star sophomore forward Aliyah Boston, and have contested shots with plenty of physicality. UConn, Tennessee, N.C. State and Texas A&M all also happen to feature a starting post player who stands at least 6-foot-4 and can complete with Boston’s size.
All of those factors were present at the end of UConn contest, when the Gamecocks missed three consecutive layups on the final possession of regulation, missing out on the chance to end the game and instead going to overtime. Those misses came with contact underneath the basket, but no fouls were called.
“I’ll take our defense against UConn any day of the week,” Staley said after that loss. “It’s just our offense has to be able to make layups. We make layups — and I’m not talking about the free throws — we just make layups, we wouldn’t be in that situation.”
It’s an issue Staley also mentioned after the early-season loss to N.C. State.
“I think people are taking their space away. They’re crowding their space and either we got to shoot it quicker, but on balance, or we got to kick it out if we’re not comfortable shooting the ball in that space, or we have to create some space,” Staley said.
After South Carolina defeated Kentucky on Feb. 21 but went 14 of 33 on layups, Staley was asked what drills the Gamecocks specifically use to practice their layups.
“We do a mixture of them. Some of them are just no defense at a high speed. Some of them are, especially our post players, some of them are in the crowd,” Staley said. “There’s a rebounding drill that we do where every shot is a missed shot. So, everybody collapses on the ball and we just really make it hard for our post players, we put them in those situations. ... And some of them are half-court, some of them are full-court drills. I mean, you can do a million drills. The game is a lot different when the lights come on. It’s a lot different than being in the dim lights of the (Carolina Coliseum).”
On Friday, South Carolina will play the winner of No. 7 seed Alabama vs. No. 10 seed Missouri in the quarterfinals of the SEC tournament. The Gamecocks shot better than 60% on layups against both teams in previous meetings.
NEXT USC BASKETBALL GAME
What: SEC tournament quarterfinals
Who: No. 2 seed South Carolina vs. Alabama -OR- Missouri
When: 6 p.m. Friday
Where: Bon Secours Wellness Arena, Greenville
Watch: SEC Network
