Experts, analytics, Vegas all weigh in on South Carolina’s national title hopes
South Carolina women’s basketball opens its NCAA tournament run Sunday against Mercer, going for the program’s second national title and third Final Four.
With coach Dawn Staley and the Gamecocks as a No. 1 seed, they’re obviously considered one of the favorites to hoist the national championship trophy on April 4 in San Antonio. But surveying the range of projections and predictions released since Monday’s bracket reveal, there is some difference in opinion as to where USC will end up.
Starting in Las Vegas, sportsbook Draft Kings has released its odds, and the Gamecocks are tied for the third-best chance in the field, behind only betting favorites Stanford and UConn. At +700 ($700 paid for a $100 bet), the Gamecocks are being given an implied 12.5% chance to win it all. The only wrinkle? The team they’re tied with at +700, Maryland. The Terrapins are the No. 2 seed in the Hemisfair Region that South Carolina tops, meaning only one of the two teams can advance to the Final Four. Should USC get out of the Elite Eight, though, Vegas seems to like their chances.
Indeed, the experts seem to agree that the Elite Eight will be a major testing point for South Carolina. Over at The Athletic, women’s basketball writer Chantel Jennings picked the Gamecocks to lose in that round to Maryland, who she has advancing to the national championship and losing to Baylor.
Associated Press national women’s basketball writer Doug Feinberg predicted the same result — South Carolina losing to Maryland in the Elite Eight — though he went on to pick the Terps to lose to Stanford in the Final Four.
ESPN bracketologist Charlie Creme didn’t go so far as to make a prediction, but he did rank all 64 teams in the field, and he put South Carolina at No. 4 overall. He also detailed best- and worst-case scenarios for each team, which for South Carolina ranged all the way from a national championship win to an exit in the Sweet 16.
ESPN also surveyed its panel of women’s basketball writers for their Final Four picks, with two of the seven picking South Carolina to make it that far and none predicting a national championship.
The State also spoke with analyst Debbie Antonelli, who will call some of the tournament games on ESPN. While she couldn’t offer a prediction, she did break down how a Maryland-South Carolina clash in the Elite Eight would make for a compelling matchup.
“This is a classic offense versus defense. ... I always believe when you get to this point of the season that a third of what you do sort of disappears — like it shrinks,” Antonelli said. “So, if Maryland is averaging 93 points a game, probably not maybe a whole third of that, because that would be in the 60s, but that’s where South Carolina is going to need to gain for them to win. But Maryland, I mean if you can hold them 80, if South Carolina can score 75, 80? I mean, because they’re going to score, and you’re not going to guard all of it, It’s too much. Really good game.”
From a data-driven standpoint, FiveThirtyEight, the data journalism website run by Nate Silver, has released its annual March Madness predictions driven by numbers. It gives USC a 12% chance to win the tournament, the third highest mark in the field behind Stanford and UConn. The site also gives the Gamecocks a 50% chance of advancing to the Final Four, better than Maryland’s 33%.
ESPN also has its Basketball Power Index, meant to measure team strength and predict future performance based off strength of schedule, strength of record and efficiency. BPI gives South Carolina a 9% chance to win the title, fifth highest in the field and behind Maryland.
From a fan perspective, ESPN compiles all of the picks made in its Women’s Tournament Challenge into a “People’s Bracket.” In that, 74% of votes are for South Carolina to top Maryland and make it to the Final Four, as of Thursday afternoon. Once there, though, 63% of people voted for Stanford to beat the Gamecocks.
Former President Barack Obama has also continued his annual tradition of releasing his men’s and women’s bracket picks, and he has the Gamecocks losing to Maryland in the Elite Eight.
NCAA Tournament: South Carolina Gamecocks
What: NCAA tournament first round
Who: No. 1 seed South Carolina (22-4, 14-2 SEC) vs. No. 16 seed Mercer (19-6, 10-3 Southern)
When: 6 p.m. Sunday
Where: San Antonio, Texas
Watch: ESPN
This story was originally published March 19, 2021 at 9:06 AM.
