Final NCAA projections for South Carolina women’s basketball on Selection Sunday
Rejoice, college basketball fans. Selection Sunday has finally arrived.
South Carolina women’s basketball fans won’t have to wait much longer to see what the Gamecocks’ path to a fourth national championship looks like. The bracket for the NCAA Tournament will be unveiled Sunday night at 8 p.m. on ESPN.
Before the bracket is officially set, though, let’s take a look at some final bracketology projections.
The NCAA selection committee revealed Saturday that South Carolina is one of the top 16 seeds in the field and will host opening weekend games at Colonial Life Arena in Columbia, which wasn’t a surprise.
Specific seeding won’t be released until Sunday, though. The selection committee reveals the top 16 seeds and host sites in alphabetical order.
South Carolina the fourth No. 1 seed?
The consensus amongst various bracketology models is that Dawn Staley and the Gamecocks will be the fourth overall ranked team in the NCAA Tournament seeding.
ESPN, CBS Sports, Her Hoop Stats, NCAA.com, The Athletic and USA Today all have South Carolina as the No. 1 seed in Sacramento Region 4 in their latest bracketology projections.
It won’t exactly be a surprise Sunday night if the Gamecocks wind up being officially slotted as the fourth No. 1 seed in the bracket. South Carolina was projected to be the third No. 1 seed for most of the last month but dropped to the fourth No. 1 seed after a loss to Texas in the SEC Tournament championship last week.
As a top 16 (and likely No. 1) seed, South Carolina will host three other teams for the first two rounds of the tournament in Columbia.
ESPN’s latest bracketology projects those teams to be No. 8 seed Oklahoma State (Big 12), No. 9 seed Syracuse (ACC) and two No. 16 seeds: Southern University (SWAC) and Samford (SoCon). South Carolina would play the winner of a Southern/Samford First Four game in the first round. The Gamecocks would then play the winner of Oklahoma State/Syracuse in the Round of 32.
Assuming South Carolina advances, it would be lined up to play its Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games in Sacramento, California. The Gamecocks would match up with projected No. 4 seed Minnesota (Big Ten) or No. 5 seed Ole Miss (SEC) in the Sweet 16, per ESPN. Should South Carolina win, it could run into projected No. 2 seed Iowa (Big Ten) or No. 3 seed TCU (Big 12) in the Elite Eight.
If South Carolina ends up being in Sacramento Region 4, then the Gamecocks would match up with the winner of Fort Worth Region 1 should they make it to the Final Four. ESPN’s latest bracketology has undefeated UConn as the No. 1 overall seed. The Huskies have been dominant all season long, and there’s a pretty solid chance we see a rematch of last year’s national title game in the Final Four this year.
How South Carolina looks in the metrics
The NCAA Tournament selection committee added a new metric to its list of 12 criteria that are used to determine the bracket this year.
Wins Above Bubble, or WAB for short, is a “results-based” metric that “goes beyond strength of schedule” to show how a team actually performed against its schedule. Each game a team plays is assigned a value between 1 and -1 and the cumulative total of a team’s schedule determines its WAB ranking, according to the NCAA.
South Carolina was ranked No. 3 in the country in WAB, through games played on March 11. The Gamecocks’ WAB rating of 14.53 was just behind No. 2 Texas (14.78). UCLA is No. 1 in WAB with a rating of 17.07.
NET rankings is the other metric the selection committee takes into account while determining the bracket. South Carolina is ranked No. 3 in the NET rankings behind No. 2 UCLA and No. 1 UConn.
The Gamecocks are 12-3 in Quad 1 games, which are matchups at home vs opponents in the top 25 of NET, matchups on the road vs. opponents in the top 45 of NET or neutral-site games vs. opponents in the top 35 of NET. The Gamecocks’ 12 wins vs. Quad 1 opponents are the third most in the country.
How to watch Selection Sunday
- When: Sunday, March 15
- Time: 8 p.m.
- TV: ESPN
- Stream: ESPN app or ESPN.com
This story was originally published March 15, 2026 at 6:00 AM.
