Now the race in SC’s 5th District really begins

Now that Mick Mulvaney has stepped aside to become President Donald Trump’s budget director, the race is on in earnest to replace the Indian Land Republican in South Carolina’s 5th District.

The early leaders, experts say, are two York County Republicans who have a track record with the district’s voters: former state Rep. Ralph Norman and S.C. House Speaker Pro Tempore Tommy Pope.

“It comes down to name recognition, and, in that, Pope and Norman have the leg up,” said Scott Huffmon, a political scientist at Rock Hill’s Winthrop University. “The others have got to spend money to get what those two already have.”

So far, six candidates have declared on the GOP side of the race: former state party chairman Chad Connelly; anti-Common Core activist Sheri Few; Camden attorney Tom Mullikin; Norman; Pope; and Indian Land attorney Kris Wampler.

No Democrat has declared for the race.

Filing for the race opens March 3 and closes March 13.

Party primaries will be on May 2. If necessary, a runoff will be held two weeks later, on May 16. The general election will be on June 20.

Norman and Pope are seen as having an advantage partly because of the turnout is expected to be low in the special election.

“Turnout in special elections is really anemic,” said Scott Buchanan, a political sciencist at The Citadel. “The people who turn out will be the most partisan voters.”

A recent poll found Pope, who gained his high name recognition as the prosecutor in the Susan Smith child-murder case, has the most support in the district.

But Buchanan thinks the makeup of the primary electorate — largely GOP activists — could give Connelly a boost. Connelly has never held elected office but has been a statewide GOP official.

“It gives him more name recognition because he was the party chair,” Buchanan said. “Since the electorate is more partisan, he has a little better chance than normal.”

The other candidates, Buchanan suggests, will have to “throw mud at the wall and see what sticks.”

The lesser-known candidates also are at a disadvantage because the 11-county district stretches across three TV markets, making it difficult for a candidate to reach a wide audience, Huffmon added.

“They need to get in front of the general public, at party events, as much as they can,” he said. “The question is: Are there enough for them to do that?”

While Republicans think about how to stand out, Democrats are hoping to find a candidate to run. Democrat Fran Person, a former USC football player and aide to Vice President Joe Biden, lost by 20 points to Mulvaney in November.

Party officials say several candidates are weighing their options, adding they expect to have a candidate soon.

“We will have a strong Democratic nominee who will fight for the people of the 5th District,” said Jaime Harrison, chairman of the S.C. Democratic Party. “Trump is trying to turn people against one another so he can enrich himself and his rich cronies. Democrats in the 5th District and everywhere will bring people together to demand that our elected officials look out for us all.”

However, in a low-turnout special election, the demographics of the increasingly red district are unlikely to favor a Democrat.

“No one want to get as roundly beaten as a well-financed candidate like Person got beat,” Huffmon said.

This story was originally published February 20, 2017 at 4:50 PM with the headline "Now the race in SC’s 5th District really begins."