Economics of the 2016 voter backlash

A wave of popular dissatisfaction, expressed in support for Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, has shocked both of America’s leading political parties. The protest vote, however, shouldn’t come as a surprise: For many important demographic groups, the past two presidencies have been an economic disaster.

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Let’s start with white Americans. If you’re wondering why Trump’s anti-establishment rhetoric has attracted so many white male fans, consider this: From 2000 to 2014, a period during which the United States had two two-term presidents representing each of the major parties, the median white males income declined an inflation-adjusted 5 percent. White women saw a 5-percent increase over the same period — still hardly outstanding, especially compared to the large income gains that both groups enjoyed from 1992 to 2000 under President Bill Clinton.

Black Americans fared even worse. From 2000 to 2014, the median black woman’s income fell by nearly 5 percent, and the median black man’s income decreased by nearly 10 percent (also adjusted for inflation). The decline could prove highly persistent, given the lack of progress in improving education: From 2000 to 2015, the fraction of African-American men aged 25-29 with a college degree has remained essentially unchanged at about one in six, compared with nearly one in two for their white female counterparts.

Given the economic disparities, what’s truly surprising is that more African-Americans didn’t turn away from (the very mainstream) Hillary Clinton to Bernie Sanders, or to some other non-mainstream candidate who was more sharply focused on their economic problems.

So why weren’t the ruling elites in Washington more prepared for a backlash? Perhaps they weren’t paying enough attention to truly middle-income folks. The percentage of all demographic groups earning more (adjusted for inflation) actually increased, even as median income fell in most groups. This means that the economic pain has been concentrated among people who earn considerably less than six figures — a group with which political operators in the Beltway rarely come into contact.

To turn this economic performance around, policymakers must make choices that are designed to lead to a lot more economic growth in the next four years. Neither Clinton nor Trump used the word “growth” even once in their convention speeches. Let us hope they will rectify that shortcoming soon.

This story was originally published August 4, 2016 at 5:17 PM with the headline "Economics of the 2016 voter backlash."