Experts predict cold weather COVID-19 surge. What will SC’s leaders do to fight virus?
South Carolina and the rest of the United States are seeing a surge in coronavirus cases, and public health experts predict that cases are going to continue to explode as the holidays near and the weather cools.
Despite the rising number of cases in the state, S.C. Gov. Henry McMaster will not be adding any additional restrictions to combat COVID-19, a spokesman in his office said. Instead, the governor is urging South Carolinians to practice personal responsibility.
“It is incumbent upon South Carolinians to do what they know they need to do to stay safe,” governor’s office spokesman Brian Symmes said.
State legislative leaders from both parties said it’s difficult to address the pandemic from a government perspective. They want to slow the spread of the virus, but don’t want to impede businesses.
That political reality will serve as the backdrop as state leaders return to work in January, when cooler months have forced people to spend more time indoors, likely driving COVID-19 cases up. Last week, state Department of Health and Environmental Control officials warned that South Carolina may be entering another coronavirus surge.
Since October, the state has seen a surge in hospitalizations, cases reported each day and the percentage of COVID-19 tests that return positive results, an indicator of the virus’ spread.
For example, in September, state health officials reported an average of 636 cases a day. In October, they reported an average of 721, and so far in November, they’ve posted an average of 939 confirmed cases a day. So far this month, the state has seen four days with more than 1,000 coronavirus cases reported, and on its lowest day this month, the state saw 524 confirmed cases.
The percentage of positive tests also grew from about 12.9% on average in September, with some days in the single digits, to an average of 13.9% in November. According to the White House coronavirus task force, a state should see a percent positive rate below 5% to be considered in the green — the two best ratings. To get out of the red zone — the worst possible rating — the state would need a rate of 10% or less.
In early October, the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations fell to about 600, and since have risen to an average of 757 this month.
And according to a recent White House coronavirus task force report, South Carolina’s coronavirus situation has the state ranked in the red zone, meaning the state is seeing too many cases per capita — more than 100 per 100,000 people — and too many COVID-19 related deaths — more than 2 per 100,000 people — when the targets for case numbers and deaths are 4 and 0 per 100,000 people, respectively, along with not meeting other criteria. South Carolina was joined by 42 other states that saw more than 100 new cases per 100,000 people in the last week.
The Upstate of South Carolina is seeing the worst surge in cases, according to DHEC.
According to DHEC data, the seven-day average number of cases in the Upstate began increasing around Oct. 7. That figured jumped from around an average of 74 cases per day to about 117 cases per day.
In Greenville County, the number of cases recorded daily began increasing the same day. On Oct. 7, DHEC officials reported 100 confirmed cases in the county. Since then, cases have reached as high as 297 in one day, the worst the county has seen since the start of the pandemic.
Spartanburg County saw a similar increase starting Oct. 2, with 31 cases being confirmed that day, and since, reaching as high as 157 recently, according to DHEC.
The Midlands region of the state has seen a smaller increase. On Oct. 13, the Midlands saw a seven day rolling average of 60, and by last week, the average was 76.
In Richland County, officials saw 46 new confirmed cases on Oct. 13, and since, daily cases have reached as high as 137. Lexington County, daily cases have grown from 48 reported on Oct. 13 to as high as 108 since.
Coronavirus predictions
Public health experts project that the coronavirus is going to continue to break records across the country and South Carolina will likely follow that trend.
Though South Carolina isn’t experiencing as large of a surge as states in the northwest — like North Dakota which saw an addition of more than 8,000 coronavirus cases in the last week — as the weather cools and gatherings move indoors, that could change, said Michael Sweat, the director of the Medical University of South Carolina’s Center for Global Health.
“There are a lot of things converging: holidays, weather, fatigue, university students heading home for the holidays,” Sweat said. “All of these things aren’t great.”
“You put it all together, it really portends a serious situation for us through the winter,” he added.
Gathering indoors, especially in poorly ventilated areas, can increase the spread of the coronavirus, Sweat said. According to a new study of 10 U.S. metro areas from researchers at Northwestern and Stanford, restaurants, gyms and coffee shops were named locations where the virus spread the most.
While South Carolina still has restrictions on large group gatherings at entertainment venues, McMaster lifted restrictions on restaurant capacities in early October. In the following weeks, COVID-19 cases across the state surged, but it’s hard to say if those two things are linked.
Sweat also warned that news that drug company Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine is showing promising test results could compel people to let their guard down when it comes to the virus. Estimates about the virus’ FDA approval and distribution predict that the vaccine may not be available for widespread use until this time next year, Sweat added.
“Now is not the time to say, ‘Oh, there is a vaccine, I’m not going to worry about it,’ ” Sweat said. “We’re not going to get the vaccine into people’s arms for a period of time.”
When the vaccine does come out, there are questions about whether or not people — whether they are against vaccinations or concerned about a product produced so quickly — will take it, Sweat said. But each person that takes the vaccine will increase the level of protection for others, he added.
“If the FDA approves it, its likely very, very safe,” Sweat said. “And the trade off is that COVID is very dangerous.”
Adding more COVID-19 related restrictions, like a statewide mask requirement, could help slow the spread of the virus, Sweat said. Mask are a minimal impediment to people’s personal lives, and prohibitions on indoor gatherings would be “justified at this point,” he added.
“We regulate safety all the time,” Sweat said. “(Wearing masks) saves lives in a major way and it protects people.”
Will there be legislative action?
Both Republican and Democratic lawmakers agree that deciding what to do about the influx of cases is complicated.
S.C. Senate Majority Leader Shane Massey said defining the role that government should play during the pandemic is difficult. Massey, R-Edgefield, is not in support of closing businesses or requiring people to stay home, but he supported requiring South Carolinians who are interacting with others to wear a mask in public.
Currently, South Carolinians are required to wear masks while not sitting at a table in restaurants, while in state government buildings and at entertainment venues. Some local governments, including Columbia, have passed more strict mask rules.
Massey said it is important to listen to health experts like state epidemiologist Linda Bell and to gather facts before the government should act. For example, if there is an influx in coronavirus cases that can be linked to eating at restaurants, restricting restaurant capacities is “something to look at,” he said.
“If the government is going to get involved, it needs to be in response to a problem that we see or to a problem that we anticipate,” Massey said.
Massey added that officials in DHEC should have engaged in a better public awareness campaign, similar to the scale a presidential election would engage in, doing more TV, radio and social media ads to push viewers to practice coronavirus prevention methods.
“I do think that state government needs to do a better job at communicating with the people,” Massey said. “I think we need to be very clear and very direct with people.”
Because of that, it’s going to be difficult for them to get people to listen now, Massey said.
DHEC has consistently pushed residents to wear masks and practice other COVID-19 precautions during press conferences and media calls that were once held daily. DHEC also launched an ad campaign in May featuring well-known South Carolinians like U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn to push precautionary measures.
DHEC spokeswoman Laura Renwick said the department paid for more than 129,400 media spots and advertisements, which ran in both English and Spanish on TV, radio, social media, billboards, newspapers and at businesses and major college football games.
“Medical and scientific information about this new virus changed rapidly during the early part of this year, and DHEC quickly and strategically adapted public messaging to be effective and actionable, and key partnerships with the Commission of Minority Affairs, Office of Rural Health, PASOS, Department of Aging, faith-based leaders, schools and universities, local housing authorities and so many others have amplified that messaging statewide,” Renwick said in a statement.
Massey said Republicans had not met yet to discuss their plans, including plans related to COVID-19, for the upcoming session.
Members of the House Republican leadership could not be reached Thursday.
On the other side of the aisle, S.C. House Minority Leader Todd Rutherford, D-Richland, said the state’s Democrats’ priority during the legislative session, which starts in January, will be “making sure that this state operates in a safe a manner as possible while respecting business and an employee’s right to work.”
Rutherford said he doesn’t foresee Democrats pushing for more restrictions related to COVID-19. Instead, he sees leaders offering incentives for businesses to operate more safely. Rutherford added that Democrats will also push during the budget process to make sure that health care systems that serve underprivileged communities will have enough resources to fight COVID-19.
“From a lawmaker’s perspective, it’s hard to address it,” Rutherford said.
He added that the state’s most public leaders, like the governor, lieutenant governor and members of the governor’s Cabinet should set a firm example for South Carolinians by always wearing a mask while in public.
“What is not difficult is wearing a mask,” Rutherford said.
Rutherford added that he thinks the Legislature will be involved when a potential COVID-19 vaccine is approved for broader use.
“We’re going to make sure minor citizens are not left out, that underserved citizens are not left out,” Rutherford said.
The Legislature will also likely have to confirm a new director for DHEC in the spring. The agency has been without a permanent head for most of the pandemic.
S.C. Sen. Dick Harpootlian, D-Richland, said he hopes to give local governments more power to combat the coronavirus during the upcoming session.
Ordinarily, the Department of Health and Environmental Control has the ability to regulate businesses that are deemed a health hazard. Harpootlian argued that DHEC is not fulfilling that duty, and that local governments should be given the same power as the agency to suspend business licenses if they aren’t practicing locally required COVID-19 precautions.
Currently, some cities, like Columbia, have the ability to fine or ticket a business for not following locally mandated precautions, but those punishments can get tied up in the judicial system, Harpootlian said.
“If the state is not going to step up and do their job on a statewide basis … if they’re not going to do it, than the local authorities should be empowered,” Harpootlian said.
Harpootlian added that each municipality having its own rules to combat the coronavirus is “absolutely ludicrous.”
“Whatever we’re doing ain’t working,” Harpootlian said.
