SC health experts predict COVID-19 surge in 2021, respond to slow vaccine roll out
South Carolina’s health department is bracing for a winter coronavirus case surge in the new year, while at the same time facing new criticism from state lawmakers over the handling of the agency’s COVID-19 vaccination program.
State lawmakers took turns blasting the state’s vaccine distribution on social media Wednesday, resulting in a response from the state’s Department of Health and Environmental Control, which said the state has already distributed a higher percentage of the vaccine than the national average.
Slow vaccine distribution is an issue nationwide.
Of the more than 11 million doses that have been shipped out across the country, fewer than 3 million have been administered, falling far behind the Trump administration’s goal. On average, 19% of vaccine doses have been distributed across the country.
As of Wednesday, 31% of South Carolina’s allotted vaccine doses have been distributed, said DHEC spokeswoman Laura Renwick. Still, that number is higher than other southern states, including North Carolina’s 20% and Georgia’s 14% administered, she said.
The agency said it anticipates more doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine to become available next year.
In a separate interview with The State this week, DHEC officials warned South Carolinians that the new year is not the time to relax health precautions that could help slow the spread of COVID-19.
Because it is getting colder, health experts say they are worried about groups gathering indoors and are predicting a surge in cases in January. South Carolina is already seeing record-breaking growth in cases, with more than 2,000 people testing positive for the virus almost every day in December.
The state this month also logged recording-breaking hospitalizations, and officials worry more stress will be added to the hospital system.
“You just need to hold on a little bit longer,” said Dr. Brannon Traxler, DHEC’s interim public health director. “We see this vaccine, we see it rolling out and tens of thousands of doses coming into our state every week. We are really asking people to stay the course.”
Lawmakers blast roll out speed, but agency asks for patience
State health leaders said this week it is difficult to predict how quickly vaccine distribution will go.
Traxler said her best estimate is the vaccine will be more widely available for general use by late spring or summer. But that, Traxler added, is also dependent on vaccine manufacturing speed.
As of Tuesday, South Carolina had received 112,125 doses of the Pfizer vaccine and 84,500 doses of the Moderna vaccine.
Of those, 31,511 doses of the Pfizer vaccine had been administered. Moderna vaccine distribution data from DHEC was not immediately available because those doses are administered through a federal program.
Traxler said the state is expecting to receive more doses of the vaccine each week.
The state is still in phase 1A of vaccine distribution, meaning the state only has limited doses of the vaccine, which are earmarked for frontline health care workers and residents at long-term care facilities.
States cannot move into phase 1B — which includes people with pre-existing medical conditions, are of advanced age, or live or work in congregate settings such as group homes or correctional facilities — until 70% or more of people in group 1A have been vaccinated or had the chance to do so, Traxler said, citing federal guidelines.
Moving into Phase 1B is dependent on how much vaccine is allocated to South Carolina and people’s willingness to get vaccinated, she added. Traxler said DHEC expects to remain in phase 1A for several months.
“That bright light out there on the horizon is getting brighter each week in South Carolina,” Traxler said.
But lawmakers have publicly expressed frustration about the speed at which vaccines are being distributed.
State Rep. Neal Collins, R-Pickens, tweeted Wednesday that “(a)t this rate, it’ll take us 6.76 (years), or until Sept. 2027 for 100% (of South Carolinians to receive the vaccine).”
That was echoed by Sen. Marlon Kimpson, D-Charleston, who tweeted that the slow distribution “extremely troubling.”
State Senate Majority Leader Shane Massey, R-Edgefield, added, “Bipartisan agreement.”
Kimpson told The State separately he also has heard that some people prioritized first to get the vaccine, including “health care professionals,” have not taken advantage of the opportunity.
He did not provide a specific example, but said he favors providing the vaccine to others lower on the priority list if people in the highest priority categories don’t get the vaccines promptly.
People in “the high priority category, either have been on holiday break and have not gone to get the vaccine, or they have intentionally refused to get the vaccine,’‘ Kimpson said. “It will be my suggestion that we bypass those in both categories and move to the categories after that, so that people who want the vaccine can get it immediately.”
DHEC’s lead epidemiologist Dr. Linda Bell called for patience as DHEC worked to distribute the vaccine.
“It will be an unknown amount of time before everyone who would like to be vaccinated can receive vaccine,” Bell said. “We are calling on all South Carolinians to continue to be patient and understand that an endeavor like this will take many weeks to complete the initial phases and months to achieve our ultimate goal of coverage for the population.”
Traxler encouraged South Carolinians to “give serious consideration” to getting the vaccine, adding that having a large population get vaccinated is the quickest way to return to normal.
What is normal depends on what percentage of the population would be willing to get vaccinated, she said.
But, she said when 70% of a population is vaccinated, there will be “significant changes” and improvement in slowing a virus’ spread.
“Each person that gets vaccinated helps not only themselves but the community turn back to normal,” Traxler said.
Worries of a winter surge in 2021
Traxler worried that a winter surge in cases could add serious strain to hospitals across the state.
On Wednesday, South Carolina saw a record-breaking number of people hospitalized — 2,001 — with COVID-19.
Across the state, counties reported that all or many of their staffed hospital beds were in use.
In the Upstate, York County reported 100% of its staffed hospital beds were occupied, Spartanburg reported 94.7% and Cherokee County reported 90.9% were occupied.
Leaders from Upstate health systems urged the public to take steps to slow the spread of COVID-19 earlier this month. Officials from Prisma Health, Bon Secours St. Francis, Spartanburg Regional Health, AnMed Health and Self Regional Health warned that if the predicted post-holiday COVID-19 surge were to happen, hospitals could be overwhelmed.
In the Midlands, Lexington County reported Tuesday that 92.9% of staffed beds were in use.
Lexington Medical Center has seen the number of COVID-19 patients increase over the last few weeks, spokeswoman Jennifer Wilson said.
“Even with an increase in the number of cases, Lexington Medical Center is fully prepared to respond to COVID-19 moving forward,” she said, adding that rooms in the hospital’s new patient care tower have the technological capability to be turned into space to care for COVID-19 patients.
Still, Wilson encouraged residents to follow health guidelines to slow the spread of the virus.
Keep practicing virus mitigating behaviors that you practiced in 2020, Traxler said. That includes avoiding large group gatherings, wearing a mask and social distancing. Those measures are proven in slowing the spread of COVID-19.
“I know that it’s winter and it’s hard to go through the holidays without gathering with the people we love like we normally do,” Traxler said. “People can get frustrated and tired of doing things, but, like I said, this is the time. We need people out there in the community working with us and helping us.”
SC vaccine distribution phases
▪ Phase 1A: Health care workers at high risk of COVID-19 exposure and residents of long-term care facilities
▪ Phase 1B: People at risk for severe complications from the virus, such as those with pre-existing medical conditions, the elderly and those who live or work in congregate settings, including group homes and correctional facilities. It also includes critical infrastructure workers, such as emergency and law enforcement personnel, other health care workers, food packaging and distribution workers, teachers, school staff and childcare providers.
▪ Phase 2: People at increased risk, but not necessarily the highest risk of COVID-19 infections or developing serious complications if infected. That includes people with diabetes, obesity and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, among other medical conditions
▪ Phase 3: Widespread general distribution.
SOURCE: S.C. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONTROL
Staff writer Sammy Fretwell contributed to this story.
This story was originally published December 30, 2020 at 1:25 PM.
