How candidates in SC’s top races for Congress are battling for votes in a pandemic
They will have no shortage of money or manpower. But how far will candidates for South Carolina’s U.S. Senate and 1st District seats — among the most closely watched races in the country — go to reach voters amid the state’s COVID-19 outbreak?
It’s a question for campaigns deciding what campaign strategy makes the most sense this cycle, when a pandemic has made it unsafe for people to gather in crowds. Knock doors and hold in-person events? Stick to digital and television advertising and virtual town halls and campaign events? A little bit of both?
“Not being able to meet voters face-to-face as much as you would want to … presents challenges for the candidate,” said Jordan Ragusa, an associate political science professor at the College of Charleston. Meeting candidates in person, he added, “changes minds because you have a tiny bit of a social bond with that person, when you have to look them in the eye and have a conversation with them.”
With so much campaign uncertainty this year, having enormous amounts of cash will help the top candidates reach voters this campaign cycle — whether through voters’ TVs, radios, digital devices and mailboxes or through funding armies of staffers, on campaigns or through the political parties, who say their goal is to turn out their bases, register new voters and leverage party resources to give candidates down the ticket a boost this cycle.
In the Senate race, Jaime Harrison — a former D.C. lobbyist and chairman of the state Democratic Party — has the chance to give U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham the greatest challenge of his political career, political observers say. The two also face a third party challenge from Bill Bledsoe, a Constitution Party candidate. And Democratic U.S. Rep. Joe Cunningham, who only narrowly won in 2018 — by 1.38 percentage points, or shy of 4,000 votes — can expect a tough battle from Republican state Rep. Nancy Mace.
But reaching voters in a most unusual campaign season, and convincing them to turn out in a health crisis, requires extraordinary efforts at a time when COVID-19 has put serious limitations on the traditional on-the-ground campaign strategy.
In South Carolina — a state where more than half a million people don’t have access to high-speed internet and the most reliable voters trend older — retail politics has been a critical part of the playbook: meet the voter where they’re at, whether at their home, a local watering hole, diners, businesses, churches and barber and beauty shops.
And the state also is “a poorer state and a more rural state, with ... poorer broadband access, and so it may be hard to reach people via digital or electronic means,” Ragusa said. “In that context, door to door interaction may be more impactful.”
Candidates and campaigns willing to go face-to-face with voters could find themselves ahead near Election Day. And securing an advantage will be easier for incumbents, who voters already know, and harder for newcomers in a year when in-person contact is limited, political observers note.
Campaigning in the pandemic also could favor Republicans because they are more likely to send volunteers to knock on doors, noted Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
“For the challenger, it’s harder to get your name out there,” Coleman said. “That may benefit Lindsey Graham in the Senate race because everyone in South Carolina knows who he is.”
The race for money, resources
The leading candidates in the U.S. Senate race are poised to inundate voters with ads wherever voters happen to be.
The underdog in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to a statewide office in more than a decade, Harrison has broken statewide Democratic fundraising records, showing he can match up with Graham in the money race.
Graham has raised nearly $31 million this cycle, and has about $15 million still in the bank, according to the latest June 30 election filings. Harrison has raised close to $29 million, with $10.2 million left in his account.
That’s allowed Harrison to stay competitive on the airwaves.
Harrison has so far spent more than $6.6 million on broadcast TV ads, nearly $5 million on digital ads and more than $1.8 million on cable, according to the ad-tracking firm Advertising Analytics. Meanwhile, Graham, who already has high name ID in the state, has spent more than $2.1 million on digital ads along with $1.4 million on broadcast TV and $1.2 million on cable.
Both have reserved more than $1 million worth of ads for the month of August alone. And that doesn’t include the ads paid for by either political party or outside spenders. But will that translate into votes in a race that’s been designated as “likely Republican” by two political ratings publications.
Maybe, some political forecasters say.
A Quinnipiac poll released Thursday had the Senate race tied at 44%. Morning Consult released a Senate poll Tuesday putting Harrison right on Graham’s heels, at 43% to 44% — a “statistical tie,” the poll said — closely mirroring other internal polls released last month by Harrison’s campaign and the anti-Graham, Lindsey Must Go SuperPac.
The two independent polls were followed by a race ID shift to “toss up” by Real Clear Politics.
But political observers note all the money in the world still may not be enough for Harrison to break through in November.
“He’s going to have plenty of money to make the TV buys he needs to, he’s going to need every penny almost and that can still not be enough, because is there a point where it gets to diminishing returns?” said Jessica Taylor, with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
Time will tell, Taylor said.
“Harrison has a very robust fundraising operation, and he is certainly poised to give Lindsey Graham the closest race ever of his re-election campaign,” she said.
With that money, Harrison’s campaign has been able to hire up. However, the campaign declined to say how many full-time employees they have on staff. Instead, Harrison’s campaign said between the campaign and the state Democratic Party, he has more than 100 paid staffers located around the state ready to help.
Graham’s campaign declined to provide staffing numbers.
In the Lowcountry 1st Congressional District, the money race is not as close for the for the seat designated a “toss up” by the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Another elections forecaster — Inside Elections — shifted the race to “tilt Democratic” on Friday.
Cunningham has massively outraised Mace, raising nearly $4.3 million this cycle, with almost $3.1 million left to spend as of June 30. His campaign said it has six, full-time staffers with plans to expand and there are more than 1,500 volunteers signed up.
With that much money in a relatively low-cost state, Cunningham also has translated that cash, starting in early July, into advertising, stretching from broadcast to digital and cable in the Charleston and Savannah markets. Through November, Cunningham has reserved more than $700,000 worth of ad spending, according to Advertising Analytics, and his campaign told The State last week they plan to expand that strategy, including into Black-owned radio.
Mace’s campaign is much more mum on strategy, from advertising to on-the-ground staffing and volunteer numbers.
The Citadel graduate and former Trump campaign aide has raised more than $1.9 million this cycle and has more than $744,000 left in the bank.
“We have the support of lots of people, people making phone calls, and we rely heavily on volunteers,” a Mace campaign spokesperson said.
And though Mace started advertising early when she was rumored to run, Advertising Analytics reported last week Mace has only spent more than $240,000 on ads with nothing further reserved as of last week.
“We’ll certainly have TV, but we don’t comment generally on the TV strategy,” the campaign said.
Mace’s backers aren’t concerned, pointing in part to her primary against three challengers, where she got more than 57% of the vote. Finishing second was Kathy Landing, who secured under 26% of the vote.
“I learned one thing in this business: When you have somebody who’s been as successful as Nancy Mace has been in her campaigns that she has run and won, you don’t second guess them,” said Kevin Hennelly, chairman of the Beaufort County Republican Party. “Nancy’s a big girl. She’s a smart gal and a very well-educated gal and she knows exactly what she’s doing. I don’t have to say anything more. Take a look at the primary numbers.”
And with three months to go, S.C. GOP chairman Drew McKissick predicted that’s all to change.
“One thing I can say for sure, especially for folks in the 1st (District), is that they, by Election Day, they’ll be begging to see more used car ads and attorney ads,” McKissick said. “Those guys won’t be able to buy air time between now and November.”
As parties deploy, who’s masking up
S.C. Democrats see 2020 as the year to take back — and keep — seats up and down the ticket, helping to run an aggressive campaign in a historically red state President Donald Trump won in 2016 by more than 14 percentage points.
“Our job at the party right now is to create a structure that puts our candidates in a position to win, build momentum and be an ambassador for one of the best slate of candidates Democrats have ever put in front of South Carolina voters,” said Trav Robertson, chairman of the S.C. Democratic Party.
That includes a paid staff that is 54% minority and 52% female — a core of the party’s voting bloc — that Robertson says will help the party long-term beyond 2020. They also plan to put 64 staffers in the field, though mostly virtual, the party said.
“We’re not knocking doors right now,” said Christale Spain, the coordinated campaign director for the party, who said that could eventually happen. “You only have so many phone numbers. South Carolina is a rural state. Everybody isn’t connected the same way. So, there’s some people who traditionally get that door knock.”
The state’s Republican Party has a different approach.
“We are the grassroots machinery, the front lines,” said McKissick, who said the party is still door knocking with masks and proper distance. “That way, candidates, at any level, can spend their time focusing on undecided voters, swing voters. They can leverage their time and dollars better.”
The party’s robust operation started a year ago early, when the party launched its “Victory 2020” operation, whose leadership team includes Steve Michael, Mark Knoop and Leighton Gray, whose large focus is winning back the 1st District.
“It’s a lot bigger,” said McKissick, who declined to go into further specifics, including how many people are now part of that operation. But, he said, “It’s statewide, and we’re in every congressional district. And we’re adding more, paid staff.”
Campaigning in COVID-19
South Carolina has documented nearly 100,000 positive cases of coronavirus since March and nearly 2,000 deaths as a result. Those high case counts have forced campaigns to consider whether it’s safe to even make public appearances.
On one side, Graham — who splits time between D.C. and South Carolina — has kept up his schedule despite the virus’ threat.
Graham has made multiple appearances around the state, talking about the country’s COVID-19 response, weighing in on everything from personal protective equipment to telemedicine. And he has attended in person local GOP meetings in Conway and Florence.
“Well, I think people need to hear from me, see me as much as possible and ask me questions,” Graham told reporters Monday at the University of South Carolina. “I do a lot of Zoom calls. I do a lot of tele-town halls, and it is really a hard balance. I don’t want to create a situation where we have a lot of big crowds, particularly of elderly people. So I’m doing the best I can. Things like this really help, where you all can tell the story of what we’re trying to do here.”
Mace, who tested positive for COVID-19 in June and has since recovered and donated plasma, also has kept up public appearances.
Mace kicked off the first leg of her veterans town hall tour in Mount Pleasant on Thursday, where she announced the creation of a veterans coalition that’ll be chaired by Medal of Honor recipient retired Marine Maj. Gen. James E. Livingston.
Democrats, on the other hand, have largely been campaigning virtually.
Cunningham splits his time between South Carolina and Capitol Hill. But his campaign has mostly gone virtual, especially after he tested positive for COVID-19 in March and recovered. This week, he launched an online brewery tour, a nod to his strategy in 2018.
Harrison’s campaign is 100% virtual, hosting virtual town halls in hopes of reducing the virus’ spread while still reaching voters, said campaign spokesman Guy King.
“Our first priority will and always has been the safety of South Carolinians,” King said. “Jaime also feels leaders need to lead by example. What message would we be sending if our campaign held crowded rallies and fundraisers as the COVID-19 crisis wreaks havoc across the Palmetto State? Jaime believes we need to show, not tell, people that public gatherings without any safety precautions are dangerous during this time.”
Meanwhile, Graham’s campaign has criticized Harrison for staying indoors.
“While Jaime Harrison remains in his basement, Sen. Graham is traveling the state meeting with leaders in the healthcare industry and business owners to see how he can best help, then returning to the Senate to implement their ideas,” said T.W. Arrighi, Graham’s spokesman.
That line would make waves in any other year, political observers say.
“That’s an argument that may have a more salient punch if we weren’t in a global pandemic, where medical advisors are cautioning us to stay home and social distance,” said Cook’s Taylor. “Campaigning is not made for social distance.”
McClatchyDC reporter Jack Kelly contributed to this report.
This story was originally published August 9, 2020 at 5:00 AM.
