Here’s how many hurricanes SC may face in 2025, early predictions show
South Carolina and the rest of the Southeast should brace for a potentially active hurricane season this year.
Colorado State University researchers released their annual early forecast on Thursday, predicting an above-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2025 — estimating there will be 17 named storms and nine hurricanes this year.
The Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1 and ends on Nov. 30.
Last year, the Atlantic hurricane season started slow but got very busy and destructive in the fall of 2024. There were 18 named storms in 2024, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
An average season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, the administration states.
Hurricane Helene, which first made landfall in Florida as a Category 4 storm, caused widespread damage and 49 deaths in South Carolina, mainly in the areas of Spartanburg, Greenville, and Aiken.
Hurricane prediction breakdown
Of the 17 named storms predicted this year, the researchers forecast nine to become hurricanes and four to reach major hurricane strength of Category 3 or higher, with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. The team also predicts that hurricane activity this year will be about 125% of the average season 1991-2020. In comparison, hurricane activity in 2024 was about 130% of the average season.
Probability of major hurricane landfall in 2025
- 51% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880-2020 is 43%)
- 26% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average from 1880-2020 is 21%).
- 33% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas (average from 1880-2020 is 27%).
- 56% for the Caribbean (average from 1880-2020 is 47%).
Reasons for above-average hurricane season
The researchers cite above-average subtropical eastern Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea surface temperatures as a primary factor in their prediction of nine hurricanes this year.
“When waters in the eastern subtropical Atlantic are much warmer than normal in the spring, it tends to force a weaker subtropical high and associated weaker winds blowing across the tropical Atlantic. These conditions will likely lead to a continuation of above-average water temperatures across most of the tropical Atlantic for the peak of the 2025 hurricane season,” the researchers state in their report. “A warm Atlantic favors an above-average season, since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water. Additionally, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere.”
This story was originally published April 4, 2025 at 6:00 AM.
