Here’s how many hurricanes SC may see in 2026, early forecasts show

South Carolina natives who have stayed in the state for years have probably had their fair share of hurricanes. Thankfully, hurricane activity this year shouldn’t cause too much concern for residents, according to early forecasts.

Colorado State University researchers released their annual hurricane season forecast on Thursday, predicting a below-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2026, with 13 named storms and six hurricanes.

The Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1 and ends on Nov. 30.

Considering all major weather activity between 1991 and 2020, an average season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, the administration states.

Last year, the hurricane season was above normal. There were 13 named storms and five hurricanes, but four of those hurricanes were extremely destructive. Three hurricanes reached category 5 intensity, which is reserved for the strongest tropical cyclones that can form on Earth.

The most significant hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season was Hurricane Melissa, which made landfall as a Category 5 hurricane in Jamaica, resulting in nearly $9 billion in damage and causing 95 fatalities across the Caribbean, according to the report.

None of those hurricanes made landfall in SC last year.

Hurricane Prediction Breakdown

Of the 13 named storms that are predicted this year, researchers forecast six to become hurricanes and two to become major hurricane strength of Category 3 or higher, with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.

The team predicts that 2026 hurricane activity will be about 75% of the average season from 1991 to 2020. By comparison, 2025’s hurricane activity was about 105% of the average season.

Probability of major hurricane landfall in 2026

• 32% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880–2020 is 43%)
• 15% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula (average from 1880–2020 is 21%)
• 20% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas (average from 1880–2020 is 27%)

Reasons for below-average hurricane season

El Niño, a natural weather pattern, is likely to develop next month, and it could become much stronger than usual. Meteorologists are calling it a “super” El Niño, and it is characterized by warmer-than-normal water in the eastern and central tropical Pacific, which tends to increase westerly winds into the Atlantic.

These winds result in increased vertical wind shear, which can disrupt Atlantic hurricane formation and intensification.

The CSU teams warn that the forecast is intended to provide the best estimate of activity in the Atlantic during the upcoming season, and is not an exact measure. Researchers caution coastal residents to still take proper precautions.

“It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you,” said Michael Bell, a professor of Atmospheric Science at CSU.