Tropical Storm Elsa is tracking toward the Midlands and severe weather is forecast
Forecasts show it is no longer a question if Tropical Storm Elsa will reach South Carolina, but the focus is on when it will arrive and what severe weather is expected in the Midlands.
Heavy rain and flooding pose the greatest threats to the Columbia area, the National Weather Service said in a Wednesday morning briefing.
There is also the potential for isolated tornadoes, primarily in the eastern portion of the Midlands, according to a hazardous weather outlook from the National Weather Service.
“The biggest impact for the Midlands is the heavy rain potential,” National Weather Service Meteorologist Chris Rohrbach told The State.
The rain could begin Wednesday. But the greatest impacts of the storm are expected Wednesday night through Thursday, when there’s a 90% chance of precipitation, according to the forecast. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through Thursday afternoon.
Between 2-4 inches of rain are possible in the Midlands, according to the briefing. Higher amounts of rainfall are possible in certain areas affected by storms.
The heavy rainfall could trigger flash flooding, especially in urban and low-lying areas, the National Weather Service said.
There’s the potential for localized flooding from rain in Columbia, but in the area just east there’s a greater chance of flooding, according to the briefing.
Rohrbach said it’s still too early to tell if there will be issues with river flooding, and that will be determined by where the storm causes the most rainfall.
No warnings or watches have been issued for the Midlands. But both, and other advisories, remain a possibility, according to the National Weather Service.
Although the chances are low, there’s a 20-30% possibility of tropical storm force winds in the Midlands, the briefing shows. Elsa is expected to diminish in intensity, likely becoming a tropical depression as it crosses into South Carolina, the National Weather Service said.
In a “worst-case scenario,” winds between 39-57 mph could affect Columbia, according to National Weather Service Meteorologist John Quagliariello. But gusts in the 30-35 mph range are closer to what Quagliariello expects.
“We want people to be prepared,” Quagliariello said. “It will be breezy enough to blow down objects.”
The meteorologist recommended securing any loose objects outside of homes.
Like the rain, the most powerful winds caused by Elsa are predicted to occur in heavier rain bands or thunderstorms at night and into Thursday morning, the National Weather Service said.
Powerful winds could cause considerable damage to trees and branches, which creates the possibility of downed power lines and outages.
As of Wednesday afternoon, the tropical storm had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph, with higher gusts recorded, according to the National Hurricane Center. It was about 105 miles south of Jacksonville, Florida but was moving north at about a 14 mph clip. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center, the National Hurricane Center said.
Elsa, which was previously classified as a hurricane twice, made landfall on the north Florida Gulf Coast at about 11 a.m., according to the National Hurricane Center. The storm was forecast to make a turn to the northeast toward South Carolina.
“It will move across to the Carolinas tonight,” Quagliariello said.
The storm weakened as it moves inland through the Southeast. But severe weather threats still remain.
After making landfall, Elsa’s track shifted slightly to the west and slightly increased the chance of tornadoes in the Midlands, according to the briefing.
A tropical storm watch is in place for a portion of the coast of South Carolina and the Lowcountry, including Charleston, Colleton, Beaufort, Jasper and Berkeley counties, according to the state Emergency Management Division.
Elsa could be the second named storm of the 2021 hurricane season to impact the Palmetto State. At the end of June, Tropical Storm Danny rumbled through South Carolina.
This is a developing story, check back for updates.
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This story was originally published July 7, 2021 at 9:58 AM.
