What ESPN says about Clemson football’s win-loss record, playoff chances in 2026
The ACC hosts its college football media kickoff event in Charlotte this week. The league, later in July, will unveil its teams’ predicted order of finish in the conference.
Don’t want to wait that long to argue over who the best is in the ACC? ESPN already has you covered.
ESPN has released its preseason College Football Power Index (FPI) rankings for the new season. The FPI “measures teams’ true strength on net points scale; expected point margin vs. average opponent on a neutral field,” per the TV giant.
Clemson cracked the Top 25 in the FPI preseason rankings. Dabo Swinney and the Tigers are No. 19 with an FPI rating of 13.4. That makes Clemson the second-best overall ACC team in the FPI rankings.
Last year, Clemson was ranked No. 11 in the preseason Football Power Index.
The FPI makes several other predictions in addition to its overall ranking. Here’s what kind of 2026 season ESPN is expecting for Swinney and the Tigers:
A bounce-back year for the Tigers?
Clemson is coming off the second-lowest win total of Swinney’s 18-year tenure at the helm of the program. The Tigers went 7-6 in 2025, and ESPN is projecting a slightly better year in 2026.
ESPN gives Clemson an 89.3% chance to make a bowl game, down from a 98% chance last year. The FPI projects the Tigers to finish with an 8-4 record in 2026. Last season, Clemson fell short of its projected 9.7 wins.
Clemson’s postseason projections have also fallen compared with last year.
Swinney and the Tigers have a 9.5% chance to win the ACC, per the FPI. Those odds are third-best in the league. ESPN currently favors Miami to win the ACC ahead of SMU. Last year, Clemson was given a 34% chance to win the conference.
Clemson’s College Football Playoff odds also dipped from last year. The Tigers have a 21.1% chance to make the CFP and a 1.9% chance of making the national title game. Those numbers were at 47.3% and 7% last preseason, respectively.
Clemson’s title odds last year were small (2.8%) in the preseason but are even smaller this year. The FPI gives the Tigers a 0.7% chance of winning a national championship.
A look at strength of schedule
The FPI also has a strength of schedule component. This year, ESPN considers Clemson’s schedule to be the 35th-hardest in the country.
The top 10 teams in the strength of schedule are made up almost exclusively of SEC teams, including Clemson’s arch-rival South Carolina (No. 10).
Florida State has the toughest strength of schedule of any ACC team entering the season, per FPI. The Seminoles’ slate is ranked 22nd hardest in the country.
Just three of Clemson’s 2026 opponents (LSU, Miami and South Carolina) are in the Top 25 of the preseason FPI rankings.
The Tigers’ highest-ranked opponent is Miami (No. 7).
This story was originally published July 13, 2026 at 1:50 PM.
