Where South Carolina’s NCAA outlook stands heading into showdown with Tennessee
After South Carolina baseball put the finishing touches on its fourth straight win Tuesday night, head coach Mark Kingston couldn’t resist flipping through the sports channels from his living room couch.
He wanted to catch the tail end of a 14-inning bout between Georgia and Georgia Tech, while also flipping to UT Martin’s late-inning road upset of Ole Miss.
While Kingston says that 98% of his energy is focused on his own team, he can’t help keeping an eye on the bigger picture. This is the time of year when RPI and strength of schedule go under the microscope.
“You do scroll around and see who these other top 20 teams are playing, what’s their RPI?” Kingston said. “I think it’s human nature to want to know not only your situation but how are the other people that might affect your situation, how are they set up? What are they doing?”
This weekend, the No. 21 Gamecocks (32-18, 15-12 SEC) will host No. 4 Tennessee (40-13, 18-9) for their final regular season series and one of the last chances to boost their postseason resume. Named by the NCAA as one of 20 potential hosts — a list that will be trimmed to 16 after conference tournaments — South Carolina enters the weekend on the hosting bubble.
In the most recent D1Baseball.com and Baseball America projections, USC just missed the cut as a host, projecting as a No. 2 seed. But a home series against one of the top teams in the country presents an opportunity to re-enter the conversation.
Looking to host their first regional since 2016, the Gamecocks are coming in hot and are receiving the added jolt of playing in front of a full-capacity home crowd for the first time this season. With Tennessee coming off an intense, passionate series loss against No. 1 Arkansas, the weekend seems likely to provide a postseason-like atmosphere.
“It’s extremely exciting,” senior shortstop George Callil said of playing in front of a full crowd. “When we got that call last year saying that our season was canceled and I thought my college years were done ... to have the opportunity to come back and to put this uniform on, and for us to do what we’ve done so far this year and have the opportunity to do some great things in the next few weeks, it’s been an unreal ride for me and something I’m extremely grateful for.”
After looking like a hosting lock in late April, the Gamecocks lost three straight conference series to Arkansas, Ole Miss and Mississippi State, muddying their resume. However, USC showed late-season resiliency with a road sweep at Kentucky last weekend. A series win over the Vols would almost assuredly secure a hosting nod. But even one win could be enough, given where South Carolina’s metrics stand.
At No. 11 in the RPI, the Gamecocks rank higher than Ole Miss, Gonzaga, Stanford, Florida and Charlotte — all teams in the hosting conversation. Kingston has said since before the season that he believes the Gamecocks had the hardest schedule in the country, and there’s evidence on his side. USC ranks fifth in WarrenNolan.com’s unofficial strength of schedule measurements.
“There’s the old cliche, ‘What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger,’and this schedule could have killed a lot of people,” Kingston said. “There’s no question about it.
“At times we took some wounds on, but we didn’t die and we kept fighting back, and we’ve put ourselves in a position now to be basically one of the top 10 RPI teams in the country, and we put ourselves in a position ... to host, and we’ve learned a lot about our team.”
NEXT USC BASEBALL GAMES
Who: No. 21 South Carolina (32-18, 15-12 SEC) vs. No. 4 Tennessee (40-13, 18-9)
When: 7 p.m. Thursday, 7 p.m. Friday, noon Saturday
Where: Founders Park
Watch: Streaming online on SEC Network Plus on Thursday and Friday, then televised by SEC Network on Saturday
NCAA baseball tournament projections
▪ D1Baseball: South Carolina is a projected No. 2 seed in the Greenville (NC) Regional along with host and No. 1 East Carolina, No. 3 Virginia and No. 4 Campbell.
▪ Baseball America: The Gamecocks are a projected No. 2 seed in the Gastonia (NC) Regional along with host and No. 1 Charlotte, No. 3 Liberty and No. 4 VCU.
This story was originally published May 19, 2021 at 2:50 PM.
