Reassessing South Carolina’s path forward in 2020 with ESPN odds-making systems
Will Muschamp’s South Carolina football program came into 2020 in a tight spot, needing to win the opener against Tennessee to build a move comfortable path to .500 or better.
The Gamecocks lost that game, then turned around and lost the toughest game on the slate at Florida. So what’s the next step as the team tries to salvage a solid record despite more challenges ahead?
Using a pair of analytic systems from ESPN, FPI and SP+, the Gamecocks’ road actually doesn’t look all that bad. To get to four wins, they’d need to win two games they should be favored in and a pair of tossups, but after a few weeks, things don’t look all that bad on that front, plus one other annual foe is looking less than spry.
Bill Connelly, who created and manages SP+ posted his full listing of SEC ratings in a weekly update. They paint a picture of the Gamecocks needing to overcome some smaller spreads, but not in the worst shape. (These odds still use three points as the measure of homefield, though it might be closer to one or no points with fewer fans):
At Vanderbilt: Gamecocks by 15.5
Auburn: Tigers by 6
At LSU by 10.5
Texas A&M: Aggies by 1
At Ole Miss: Rebels by 3
Missouri: Gamecocks by 9
Georgia: Bulldogs by 16.5
At Kentucky: Wildcats by 3.5
In there you have two games where the Gamecocks are favored by a good number, three more within four points, and one more after that withing a touchdown. If one thinks there’s less homefield, that improves the chances at Ole Miss and at Kentucky (even at LSU), but makes A&M and Auburn a little less favorable.
The Aggies’ movement has been particularly notable as they got pulled into the mud by Vandy and smashed by Alabama.
ESPN’s FPI system produces similar spreads, but it also gives percentage chances to win, which are below for South Carolina:
At Vanderbilt: 79.4
Auburn: 21.2
At LSU: 16.3
Texas A&M: 48.3
At Ole Miss: 37.9
Missouri: 68
Georgia: 10
At Kentucky: 38
Now salvaging that into a solid record won’t be easy. If a team has about a 50 percent chance to win two games, that projects to going 1-1. FPI projects the Gamecocks at 3.2 wins, which would be enough to escape the indignity of only beating Vandy and Mizzou but would leave a lot of questions at year’s end (4-6 would mean modestly fewer questions).
It’s all moot if South Carolina can’t win at Vanderbilt in Nashville on Saturday, but considering everything riding on the Tennessee game, the rest of the slate seems to have opened up a bit more than expected.
