Gamecock Mailbag: Why is Clemson a two-score favorite over South Carolina?
The South Carolina football season is coming to a close — well, the regular season anyways.
With Saturday’s 21-17 win over Auburn, USC has hit the six-win bowl eligibility threshold for the first time since 2018. Next up is a chance to climb up the Southeastern Conference’s bowl selection ladder with a matchup against in-state rival Clemson.
Let’s get to the questions:
I want to know, will we see more FB packages with (Trai) Jones? Every time he’s in there we it seems we get a big play. Also if they thought about using JuJu (McDowell) as a slot receiver to get him more touches? — Eric B.
I touched on this in last week’s mailbag some, but I think it boils down to the package with Trai Jones at fullback is designed specifically for short-yardage situations.
Jones’ three-yard touchdown reception Saturday sparked South Carolina to its eventual comeback win over Auburn. It was the latest glimpse of the offensive lineman-turned-fullback and the creativity the Gamecocks have brought out of that subpackage.
If I remember right, South Carolina trotted that package out there a handful of times on Saturday and took a similar approach in the games against Florida and Missouri before that. It’s not a package that will be used often given that it’s a bit niche, but it’s surely been productive.
As for your note on Juju McDowell, the freshman tailback has definitely seen his carries dip some of late. McDowell hasn’t had more than three carries in a game since he was suspended for the Vanderbilt game. Most of that has to do with ZaQuandre White’s emergence (more on that in a second), but South Carolina would be wise to get him some touches on the edge on Saturday.
RB (ZaQuandre) White is the best offensive weapon we have. He went 3 straight games without a carry and hardly used most other games. He is explosive. Why did the coaching staff not use him? — Brian P.
Speaking of White, it’s hard to overstate how crucial he was to South Carolina’s wins over Auburn and Florida.
The former Florida State linebacker finished Saturday’s contest against Auburn one yard shy of a third 100-yard rushing effort this year, but his 28-yard touchdown reception helped piece together the Gamecocks’ 21-3 run. White is averaging seven yards per touch over the last month, and his 329 yards in that span would rank second to only Kevin Harris’ season total (!!).
There’s not really a great explanation as to why we didn’t see him more early in the season. He ran for over 100 yards in the season opener against Eastern Illinois and disappeared from there.
Some of that assuredly had to do with McDowell’s early-season success, while also finding ways to mix in MarShawn Lloyd and Harris. With White now pretty clearly the No. 1 back in Columbia, expect him to shoulder the rushing load on Saturday against Clemson.
Clemson appears to be no better than Auburn. Why the high early spread you think (14)? — Stephen C.
Let me list a few numbers: 35, 21, 24, 49. Those are the point differentials in Clemson’s last four wins over South Carolina.
Don’t get me wrong, USC has been wildly impressive in Shane Beamer’s first season at the helm. Getting this squad to bowl eligibility is grounds for SEC Coach of the Year candidacy.
Couple that with Clemson’s issues offensively this fall and South Carolina’s 5-1 mark at home in 2021, and there’s reason to believe the Gamecocks have a shot this year.
However, the Tigers are still riding a six-game winning streak in the series, have recruited at a national championship level and are only three years removed from hoisting the trophy themselves.
USC fans might not want to hear it, but Clemson is just more talented on paper right now.
This isn’t to say South Carolina can’t win on Saturday. If there’s anything I’ve learned this year, predicting what version of this Gamecocks squad will show up in a given week is a fool’s errand.
But, to answer your question, Clemson’s recent dominance and its talent on paper are just a handful of the reasons the spread opened at two touchdowns — it has since dropped to 11.5 points.
Ben’s Best
With rivalry week upon us nationwide, I thought it relevant to rank my top-five rivalries in college football with a few honorable mentions mixed in.
- Army-Navy
- The Game — Michigan-Ohio State
- The Iron Bowl — Auburn-Alabama
- Red River Showdown — Texas-Oklahoma
- The Egg Bowl — Ole Miss-Mississippi State
Honorable Mentions
- The Palmetto Bowl — South Carolina-Clemson
- The Civil War — Oregon-Oregon State
- Holy War — BYU-Utah
- World’s Largest Cocktail Party — Florida-Georgia
- USC-Notre Dame
