USC’s fourth-down decisions draw criticism. Shane Beamer explains his thought process
The Will Muschamp flashbacks had to kick in for some South Carolina fans on Saturday.
The decision-making of the former Gamecocks coach did not always make mathematical sense. During a 2020 game against Texas A&M, the South Carolina offense was facing a 4th and 13 from the Aggies’ 31-yard line.
Muschamp sent out his field-goal unit and kicker Parker White booted a 48-yarder through the uprights.
It would have been a great decision … if the Gamecocks weren’t already down 41-0.
South Carolina went on to lose 48-3. (But, hey, at least the Gamecocks weren’t shut out!)
Last weekend against Missouri, Shane Beamer faced an interesting choice along the same lines. The Gamecocks were down 27-9 at Missouri with 10:34 to play. They faced a 4th and goal from the Tigers’ 3. South Carolina hadn’t been that close to the end zone all day.
Rather than go for the touchdown, which could have brought USC within 10 (if it got the two-point conversion), Beamer decided to kick a field goal to stayin a two-possession game. Mitch Jeter hit the chip shot and the Gamecocks cut their deficit to 15 points. They didnot score again and lost by 22.
Analytically, according to the website A.I. Sports, the decision had little impact on the game. When Beamer decided to kick the field goal, the Gamecocks had a 1% of coming out victorious. If they chose to go for it on fourth down, the model noted, their chances of winning only rose to 2% and would have only jumped to 4% if they got the touchdown.
On Tuesday, Beamer expounded on his thought process when it comes to fourth-down decisions.
“There are some coaches who are 100% analytics driven and they’re going to go by the book,” he said. “And if the book says if you hit the 30-yard line and it’s 4th and 5 or less, go for it. I don’t. We rely on analytics to a certain degree but not as far as making every decision in the game. I don’t do that. It’s more of a feel and each situation is different.”
Beamer explained his thinking behind kicking the field goal on the 3-yard line, saying that the Gamecocks had run three “pretty good calls” on first, second and third down that they didn’t execute successfully.
“In my mind, we had three plays to get this thing in,” Beamer said. “Not that I don’t have confidence in our guys on fourth down to get it done. But, also, let’s get points and keep it a two-score game.”
Earlier in the contest, when the game was still in its infancy, Beamer faced another interesting fourth-down decision. On the Gamecocks’ first offensive drive of the day, they were inside the red zone before quarterback Spencer Rattler was sacked.
Facing a 4th and 21 from the Missouri 33-yard line, Beamer called timeout. Initially, he wanted to punt. The wind was swirling and Jeter would have been kicking right into a gust. As the timeout dragged on, though, the wind died down and Beamer changed course.
“At the start of the timeout, we were going to punt,” Beamer said. “The wind kind of flipped a little bit. We had it at the back. We kicked the field goal there and missed.”
Said Jeter after the game: “The wind probably changed three times during the timeout. There wasn’t any consistency in it. … This was probably the windiest game I’ve ever had to kick in.”
Like any coach, Beamer has had varying degrees of success when it comes to his fourth-down decision-making. On Tuesday, he thought back to his fourth game as head coach — a 16-10 loss against Kentucky in 2021.
Twice the Gamecocks went for it on fourth down past midfield and twice they were stopped.
“That was a situation I just felt like, in the game at that time, we had an opportunity to get it,” Beamer said Tuesday. “It goes back to how you’re playing.”
Then last year against Tennessee, Beamer knew it was going to be a high-scoring affair. Field goals weren’t gonna cut it. And on that night, the Gamecocks were 2 for 2 on fourth-down conversions. As you know, they upset the Volunteers, 63-38.
“(There’s) a lot that goes into it,” Beamer said.
Next South Carolina football game
Who: South Carolina (2-5, 1-4 SEC) at Texas A&M (4-3, 2-2 SEC)
Where: Kyle Field in College Station, Texas
When: noon Saturday
TV: ESPN
Line: Texas A&M by 14
