How ‘devastating loss’ to Tennessee affects South Carolina’s NCAA and SEC outlook
When the South Carolina women’s basketball team fell to UConn earlier this month, coach Dawn Staley didn’t hide her disappointment, but she made it clear — “Everything that we want is still in front of us.”
After the No. 2 Gamecocks dropped another road contest, this time to Tennessee on Thursday, Staley repeated that mantra.
“As much as it’s a devastating loss, there’s still a lot of the season left and, you know, again, all of our goals are still in front of us because of the work that we put in and the position we put ourselves in prior to today’s loss,” Staley said after the 75-67 defeat.
And indeed, South Carolina’s main goals — SEC regular season and tournament titles, an NCAA Final Four and national championship — are not out of reach because of Thursday’s result.
But no one is pretending it doesn’t complicate things.
“One loss would have huge ramifications in this league and also on the whole national scheme, as far as NCAA tournament,” Staley acknowledged. “I just, for us, I like to play in front of all of that. And then you leave all the questions of all that other stuff. And now we’re gonna be the ones asking the questions instead of just forging ahead.”
To that point, South Carolina was pegged as a No. 1 seed (and No. 2 overall) in the top-16 seed sneak peak from the NCAA selection committee released Monday. The committee won’t reveal its top 16 again until March 1. In the meantime, there’s likely to be some debate over whether the Gamecocks will hang on to their top seed — exactly what Staley wants to avoid.
For what it’s worth, ESPN bracketologist Charlie Creme said Thursday night after the USC-Tennessee game that he thinks the Gamecocks will remain a No. 1 seed for now. But there’s likely be plenty of arguments from fans of teams rated as No. 2 seeds in the initial reveal — Texas A&M, N.C. State, Maryland and Arizona.
At 17-3 now, South Carolina’s only losses have come to ranked opponents. All of the four No. 2 seeds have two or fewer losses, with Texas A&M and Arizona both sporting defeats to unranked opponents.
This marks the first season the NCAA is using the NET rating system in women’s basketball. As of Thursday evening, the average NET rating of the opponents South Carolina has beaten and lost to are both higher than all four of the No. 2 seeds in those respective categories.
The Gamecocks also have more Quadrant 1 wins (wins over teams ranked 1-30 at home, 1-50 at neutral sites, 1-75 away) than Maryland, Arizona and N.C. State, while being tied with Texas A&M at nine such wins.
SEC implications
Beyond the NCAA tourney, Thursday’s result tightens the race for the SEC.
With the loss to Tennessee, South Carolina still stands first in the SEC at 12-1 thanks to win percentage, ahead of Texas A&M at 10-1. Tennessee, meanwhile stands at 7-3 and is still scheduled to play three more games. If the Lady Vols sweep those three contests and South Carolina loses its final three games, Tennessee would pass the Gamecocks in the standings.
A single win for USC, however, would assure Staley’s team of at least a top-two seed in the conference tournament. That would be assured even if the SEC reschedules all the games it has postponed this year due to COVID-19 protocols and inclement weather. It’s not currently known how many, if any, will be made up.
Texas A&M and South Carolina are scheduled to meet in the regular season finale on Feb. 28. Obviously, if the two teams post the same record over the next two games, the winner on Feb. 28 will win the SEC regular season championship and No. 1 seed in the conference tournament.
Beyond that, it becomes a matter of winning percentage. If South Carolina goes 2-1 down the stretch, Texas A&M has to win out to claim No. 1. If the Gamecocks go 1-2, the Aggies have to go at least 2-1. If the Aggies go 2-1, South Carolina simply has to at least match that mark, with the same going for a 1-2 record.
NEXT USC BASKETBALL GAME
Who: No. 2 South Carolina (17-3, 12-1 SEC) vs. No. 17 Kentucky (15-5, 8-4)
When: 3 p.m. Sunday
Where: Colonial Life Arena
Watch: ESPN
SEC women’s basketball conference standings
Conference record first, followed by overall
- South Carolina 12-1 (17-3)
- Texas A&M 10-1 (19-1)
- Tennessee 7-3 (13-5)
- Kentucky 8-4 (15-5)
- LSU 6-6 (8-10)
- Georgia 8-4 (16-4)
- Alabama 7-6 (14-6)
- Mississippi State (3-5)
- Arkansas 5-6 (15-7)
- Missouri 3-8 (7-9)
- Florida 3-9 (10-10)
- Ole Miss 3-7 (9-7)
- Auburn 0-12 (5-15)
- Vanderbilt* 0-3 (4-4)
* Vanderbilt opted out of the rest of the season
This story was originally published February 19, 2021 at 9:26 AM.
