Can a Democrat win the SC Governor’s Mansion?

He beamed as the crowd chanted.

“James! James! James! James!”

State Rep. James Smith drifted from one end of the stage to the other, watching as optimism engulfed an overflow throng of Democrats stuffed into 701 Whaley for his 2018 campaign kickoff.

S.C. Democrats haven’t elected a governor in nearly two decades, but you wouldn’t have known that Tuesday night, as the Columbia attorney thrilled supporters with promises to fight for public education, expand health care and root out government corruption.

“I see South Carolina as she can be,” Smith said, “and I ask, ‘Why not?’ ”

The No. 1 obstacle for now – for both Smith and fellow Democratic hopeful Phil Noble – is winning the job in a red state.

South Carolina’s minority party has lost seven of the past eight gubernatorial elections.

Democrats’ last nominee, state Sen. Vincent Sheheen, D-Kershaw, suffered a 14-point walloping at the hands of incumbent Gov. Nikki Haley in 2014.

Any Democrat faces an “uphill battle” to reach the Governor’s Mansion in South Carolina, according to College of Charleston political scientist Gibbs Knotts.

First, Smith or Noble must turn out black voters who make up about 30 percent of S.C. voters and can’t be taken for granted. The Democratic nominee also must appeal to the party’s white progressives – many from Columbia who packed Smith’s kickoff event Tuesday – who have money to donate to campaigns, Knotts said.

But to be elected governor, Smith or Noble then must persuade independents and moderate Republicans – including Trump voters – to vote blue for a change.

Pleasing each of those four groups at once won’t be easy. It could mean tip-toeing around gun bans, abortion or values issues that could alienate moderate Republicans, observers say.

“A white Democrat does have to thread a few needles, and it is getting tougher and tougher,” Winthrop University pollster Scott Huffmon said.

However, former S.C. Gov. Jim Hodges, the last Democrat elected to the office, thinks a compelling candidate with a mostly nonpartisan message could succeed.

The key will be fundraising – both Democrats are millions of dollars behind GOP front-runners Henry McMaster and Catherine Templeton – and capitalizing on voters’ frustration with the status quo, said Hodges, who has endorsed Smith.

“There are demographic challenges based on voters’ perceptions of the Democratic and Republican parties, but this is an election in which people across the country are not happy, and South Carolina is no exception,” he said.

Both Democratic candidates downplay the GOP’s advantage in South Carolina’s numbers game.

“While party is important, and part of the mix, it’s not why we will win,” Smith said. “It’s more about the commitment to service that South Carolinians deserve.”

Tuesday night, the Richland Democrat said S.C. voters are “fed up with special interests controlling our government” and are ready for change.

“We are disgusted with the politics of the State House, and we deserve better.”

Noble, who never has held elected office, predicts voters’ anger over state government’s failings will trump demographics and party loyalty in 2018. The Charleston businessman pitches himself as a political outsider who would purge corruption from the State House.

“Given the disease of corruption that’s infecting the State House – and the nuclear scandal being the biggest manifestation of it – I think this is going to really scramble the traditional political landscape,” Noble said.

Asked how he plans to find common ground with average S.C. voters, Noble said he has started meeting with small town leaders about what they want from state government.

“Those are the folks we need to be listening to, not the State House crowd,” he said. “And they know they have been shut out and ignored.”

This story was originally published October 17, 2017 at 8:18 PM with the headline "Can a Democrat win the SC Governor’s Mansion?."