Here are how many storms SC may face for hurricane season 2025, new NOAA forecast says
South Carolina and the rest of the Southeast could face up to 19 named storms during hurricane season this year, federal forecasters say.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday predicted the statistical likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season this year. Hurricane season starts June 1 and lasts through Nov. 30.
The prediction comes after a destructive season in 2024. The Atlantic hurricane season last year started slow but got very busy and destructive in the fall of 2024. There were 18 named storms in 2024, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes, according to the NOAA.
An average season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, the administration states.
Hurricane Helene, which first made landfall in Florida as a Category 4 storm, caused widespread damage and 49 deaths in South Carolina, mainly in the areas of Spartanburg, Greenville, and Aiken.
“As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities,” Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm said in a press release. “NOAA is critical for the delivery of early and accurate forecasts and warnings, and provides the scientific expertise needed to save lives and property.”
NOAA hurricane prediction breakdown
The 2025 hurricane season forecast calls for a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
NOAA is forecasting with 70% confidence of 13 to 19 total named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those, six to 10 are predicted to become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher — including three to five major hurricanes (Cat 3, 4 or 5), with winds of 111 mph or higher.
Reasons for above-normal hurricane season
There are several factors why the season is expected to be above normal, including warmer than average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear, continued ENSO-neutral conditions and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon, which is a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes, NOAA states.
“The high activity era continues in the Atlantic Basin, featuring high-heat content in the ocean and reduced trade winds,” NOAA states. “The higher-heat content provides more energy to fuel storm development, while weaker winds allow the storms to develop without disruption.”
Other hurricane forecasts
The new NOAA predictions are similar to the forecasts Colorado State University researchers made earlier this month. Their forecast calls for 17 names storms and nine hurricanes this year.
Of the 17 named storms predicted this year, the researchers forecast nine to become hurricanes and four to reach major hurricane strength of Category 3 or higher, with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. The team also predicts that hurricane activity this year will be about 125% of the average season 1991-2020. In comparison, hurricane activity in 2024 was about 130% of the average season.
This story was originally published May 22, 2025 at 3:02 PM.
