Clemson vs. Ohio State breakdown and prediction: Who wins Sugar Bowl and why?
The talking is over. Now it’s time to play.
Clemson and Ohio State will face off in the Sugar Bowl Friday night with a spot in the national championship game on the line.
It’s a game both programs have been pointing to since their seasons ended last year. For Clemson, it’s an opportunity to get back to the finals after losing in the national championship game last season. For Ohio State, it’s a chance to make amends for last year’s heartbreaking loss to the Tigers.
Add in the fact that Dabo Swinney ranked OSU No. 11 in his final coaches poll, and this game has plenty of storylines.
Here are five things to watch for heading into Friday’s showdown (8 p.m., ESPN), as well as a prediction for the game:
How much will Clemson miss Tony Elliott?
News broke Wednesday afternoon that Clemson’s offensive coordinator will miss the Sugar Bowl after testing positive for COVID-19. Dabo Swinney has what he called “a depth chart” for his coaching staff, and was prepared for a situation like this. Passing game coordinator Brandon Streeter will move off the field coach from the box. Grad assistant C.J. Spiller will coach the running backs on the field. And Swinney and Streeter will work together to call plays.
Elliott was a part of the game planning all week and can participate in all of the meetings with players and staff via Zoom leading up to the Tigers leaving the team hotel Friday. He isn’t allowed to communicate with the team once Clemson is at the stadium, per NCAA rules.
Streeter is a young coach who has called plays in Clemson’s spring game in the past, just to get a feel for when his time comes. That time is now, although it sounds as if Swinney could be very involved in the play calling as well. Swinney has never been a coordinator but has an offensive background.
“Tony and I have always collaborated and kind of done it together,” Swinney said.
Has Ohio State’s defense really improved?
The Buckeyes are only two games removed from allowing 491 passing yards and five touchdowns to Indiana quarterback Michael Penix Jr. With that said, that game happened more than a month ago, and Ohio State has had plenty of practice time since then. OSU played well defensively against Michigan State and Northwestern, but Trevor Lawrence and the Clemson passing game will provide a much greater challenge.
“I think that there’s been great improvement in that area, but the ultimate test will be (Friday),” Ohio State’s Ryan Day said.
Can Clemson’s offensive line hold up?
The Tigers seem to be coming together up front. Clemson rushed for 229 yards in their most recent game against Notre Dame, as the offensive line played arguably its best game of the season against a strong Irish front seven. Is that something Clemson can replicate against Ohio State? Or will the Tigers experience some of their struggles from earlier in the year when it comes to establishing the run?
The strength of Ohio State’s defense is its front, particularly tackles Haskell Garrett and Tommy Togiai. The interior of Clemson’s offensive line is a group the coaching staff has challenged to step up late in the year.
Can the teams control their emotions?
There are mixed opinions from the players about whether or not this is a rivalry. Some Clemson players seem to think so, while receiver Amari Rodgers says otherwise.
“Not to me, to be honest. It feels nothing like the South Carolina rivalry,” Rodgers said.
Still, it’s clear that these teams aren’t very fond of each other, and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see some trash talk. In a game that is expected to be close, a taunting call or late hit could be very costly.
“It’s a game of emotion, but you don’t want to be emotional,” Swinney said.
Will Clemson break its New Orleans curse?
For whatever reason, the Tigers haven’t played well at the Superdome. Clemson hasn’t won in New Orleans since beating Tulane in 1981. Since Clemson’s playoff streak started in 2015, the Tigers are 12-3 in NFL stadiums. Two of the three losses occurred in the Superdome. It’s something Swinney has reminded his team of this week.
“I don’t know why we haven’t played our best. I guess we just haven’t had the best luck,” Rodgers said. “Hopefully we can get one this year, switch up the curse a little bit. Coach Swinney’s been reminding us about it. It’s definitely in the back of our minds.”
Clemson-Ohio State prediction
I have a hard time seeing Ohio State slowing down Clemson, even without Elliott. Lawrence is a veteran QB and the best in the country. He’ll make the right reads and checks and, along with Streeter and Swinney, get Clemson in the right play. Ohio State should be able to move the ball, too. The Buckeyes have two of the best receivers in the country in Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson, and a pretty good quarterback of their own in Justin Fields, who is expected to be a top NFL pick. I think where the Buckeyes will have trouble is protecting Fields, who has a tendency to hold onto the ball too long. That’s bad news against Brent Venables and his exotic blitzes. Ultimately I trust Clemson’s defense to get more stops than Ohio State’s.
Score: Clemson 42, Ohio State 30
