The overrated Gamecocks? Why the SEC’s official poll hasn’t been kind to USC

Each preseason, the media hordes of the SEC come together to vote a prediction for the final conference standings. Each year, those projections often look very different from the final outcome. And each year, the media poll is followed by criticism of this or that team being over- or underrated.

It will likely be no different Friday when the 2018 edition of the media poll comes out, but according to a “hype meter” breakdown done by CBS, South Carolina has found itself in the “overrated” category across the past six years.

But that doesn’t tell the full story.

According to the CBS data, which shows how many spots ahead or behind each team finished from where it was projected dating back to 2012, only three USC teams fell short of expectations. The numbers, however, show some extremes, particularly around the Spurrier vs. Muschamp transition.

“Don’t be fooled by the Gamecocks’ overall performance since expansion,” CBS reporter Barrett Sallee said. “The hype figure is drastically skewed by 2014, when they were the preseason favorite in the SEC East, and 2015, when former coach Steve Spurrier bailed midseason. In both of Will Muschamp’s seasons in charge, the Gamecocks have exceeded the preseason expectation by two places in the standings.”

USC’s total was finishing four spots below where the poll projected for the Gamecocks. (LSU and Arkansas at minus-five, and Tennessee at minus-six, were ahead of USC.)

The numbers break down into three eras. The first two years, Spurrier’s last two 11-win seasons, the Gamecocks were picked second and finished there. In 2014 they were picked first and finished tied for fourth. The next year, they were picked fourth and ended up last.

Since Muschamp has been in Columbia, USC has surpassed expectations in back-to-backs seasons.

Early indications are that the Gamecocks will either be projected as second in the SEC East or third, if there’s a swell of enthusiasm for Dan Mullen turning around Florida.

South Carolina will open its season at noon on Sept. 1 against Coastal Carolina at Williams-Brice Stadium.

This story was originally published July 18, 2018 at 10:04 AM.