Politics & Government

Will crowded SC Congress races leave voters making up their minds at the polls?

AP

The race to be South Carolina's next governor has received most of the attention heading into Tuesday's primary voting. But voters in six of the state's seven congressional districts also have a chance to potentially decide their next representative in the U.S. House.

Only in the 6th District — where U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn of Columbia is unopposed in the Democratic primary — is there no congressional primary. In three districts, there are congressional primaries in both the Democratic and Republican parties.

Here's a look at what to look for in Tuesday's federal races in the Palmetto State:

5th District: The Parnell saga

One of the most high-profile races in the state last year was Democrat Archie Parnell's campaign against Republican Ralph Norman in the 5th District, stretching from north and east of Columbia to the North Carolina border, below Charlotte.

In last year's special election, Parnell came close to defeating Norman, and his much-anticipated rematch with Norman became a major party fundraiser as Democrats eyed the district as a potential pickup for their party in the House.

Then Parnell's campaign was rocked by domestic abuse allegations made by his ex-wife 45 years ago. While prominent supporters called for him to drop out, Parnell said he would stay in the race.

Three less well-known and well-funded Democrats also are running in Tuesday's Democratic primary. But Parnell still could win.

"On name recognition alone, he could still squeeze it out," said political scientist Karen Kedrowski of Winthrop University. "But his support among activists and elected officials has evaporated. Nobody is lining up behind him."

Even if Parnell does win Tuesday's primary, the domestic-violence allegation gives Republican Norman, who is seeking re-election for the first time, a "ready-made issue" to use against Parnell in next November's general election.

"They've lost a really great opportunity here," Kedrowski said of S.C. Democrats. "Because, historically, an incumbent's most vulnerable time is the first re-election campaign."

1st District: Sanford in trouble?

One of the closer races this year is expected to be in the 1st District, centered on Charleston. Incumbent Rep. Mark Sanford is facing a challenge from state Rep. Katie Arrington in the Republican primary, a race that has focused on Sanford's disagreements with President Donald Trump and his very public adultery while he was governor.

A poll released Thursday showed Sanford with barely a 1 percentage point lead over Arrington, R-Dorchester.

"Sanford is facing a tough challenge for the first time since he won the seat in 2013," said College of Charleston professor Jordan Ragusa.

After serving just one term in the S.C. House, Arrington decided to take a shot at Sanford after the former governor won a relatively narrow primary victory over former state Rep. Jenny Horne in the 2016 GOP primary.

Despite the recent tight poll, Sanford still has to be considered the favorite, in part because of his big financial advantage over Arrington and his wider name recognition.

Sanford has held the seat since a special election in 2013, having previously represented the coastal district from 1995 to 2001. In between, Sanford was S.C. governor from 2003 to 2011.

The race is complicated by the presence on the ballot of Dimitri Cherny, a former Democratic nominee now running in the GOP primary.

On the Democratic side, attorney Joe Cunningham is running against minister and former CIA agent Toby Smith.

4th District: Replacing Gowdy

The retirement of Trey Gowdy after four terms has created one of the most crowded primary races in the country. No fewer than 13 Republicans and five Democrats will be on the ballot Tuesday to be Gowdy's successor, meaning voters in the Greenville-Spartanburg district could be forgiven if they can't keep them all straight.

"There's not a whole lot of polling in this race," said Danielle Vinson, a political science professor at Greenville's Furman University. "We're just looking at who has raised the most money and who has the most yard signs. We're tripping over yard signs here."

Some of the more prominent candidates in the field are state Sen. William Timmons and state Rep. Dan Hamilton, both of Greenville — and dominating TV's ad wars, Vinson says — as well as former Spartanburg GOP Chairman Josh Kimbrell.

Also in the race are former state Sen. Lee Bright of Spartanburg, best known for sponsoring a bathroom bill to limit transgender bathroom access before he lost his State House re-election bid in 2016, and Mark Burns, an Easley pastor known for giving the benediction at Trump's campaign rallies.

Multiple Democrats think the open seat and the prevailing political environment give them a chance. While attorney Eric Graben has picked up some support from the Democratic Party establishment, both races appear likely to go to a runoff, where the top two candidates will face off.

"Then maybe we can have more normal circumstances, and the candidates can better know how to spend their money," Vinson said.

2nd District: 3 Dems running

In the Midlands' 2nd District, Democratic voters have three candidates to choose from to take on longtime GOP Rep. Joe Wilson — former nominee Phil Black, real estate agent and former Army recruiter Sean Carrigan and attorney Annabelle Robertson.

With no real polling to go off of, Todd Shaw, chair of the political science department at the University of South Carolina, thinks the race could be a virtual toss-up.

"It's interesting to have the mixture of biographies the main Democrats bring," Shaw said, noting Carrigan's military service and Robertson's relationship with the Indivisible movement and appeal to women's issues. Even onetime Republican Black, the Democrats' 2014 nominee despite serious policy differences with other Democrats, could benefit from name recognition with 2nd District voters.

Shaw thinks Democratic voters will have to ask themselves how far they are willing to go.

"Do we take a gamble on an anti-Trump, raise-the-base coalition?" he asks. "You can do that, but know that in the general election this district has been Republican for so long."

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Whoever wins is likely to face an uphill climb against Wilson, running his 10th campaign in the district since he first won election in 2001.

"I can see (Democratic) voters making up their minds right there at the polls," Shaw said.

Other races: 3rd and 7th

Voters in other parts of the state also will have a chance to cast a primary ballot Tuesday.

In the 3rd District, Democrats will choose between insurance agent Hosea Cleveland and college instructor Mary Geren to challenge U.S. Rep. Jeff Duncan, R-Laurens, in November.

In the 7th District, three-term incumbent U.S. Rep. Tom Rice faces a Republican primary challenge from pastor Larry Guy Hammond. Meanwhile, four Democrats are seeking their party's nomination.

This story was originally published June 8, 2018 at 6:40 PM with the headline "Will crowded SC Congress races leave voters making up their minds at the polls?."

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