More rain and hurricanes for SC now that La Niña is over? Here’s what weather to expect
Well, La Niña didn’t last that long.
After months of anticipation late last year of the climate pattern’s return, La Niña finally arrived in January. And while a traditional La Niña is known to trigger more drought and higher-than-usual temperatures in the Southeast during winter, what formed was a weak La Niña that weather experts predicted would have little impact.
In any case, La Niña is already officially over, according to an April 10 post from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center.
So, does that mean that La Niña’s counterpart, El Niño, is set to return soon? Just what kind of weather can South Carolina expect in the coming months?
Is El Niño coming to SC?
For the first time in around two years, South Carolina won’t face a La Niña or an El Niño. Unlike La Niña, El Niño often increases chances of rain and colder weather in South Carolina. The climate pattern also tends to suppress hurricane formation during Atlantic hurricane season.
Instead, South Carolina faces what is called an ENSO neutral phase, the prediction center states. This neutral phase is generally associated with typical warm and wet weather for the South and usually normal hurricane development. This phase is expected to last through summer and likely into early fall.
Rain and temp forecasts for SC
In keeping with neutral phase expectations, the Climate Prediction Center forecasts fairly usual temperatures and rainfall for the next three months in South Carolina.
Temperatures in the state have a 33% to 40% chance of just leaning slightly above normal for May through July.
And rainfall amounts in the state also have a 33% to 40% chance of leaning slightly above normal over the same three months.
Hurricane season for SC
Colorado State University researchers released their annual early Atlantic hurricane season forecast last week. They predict an above-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2025 — estimating there will be 17 named storms and nine hurricanes this year.
The Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1 and ends on Nov. 30.
Last year, the Atlantic hurricane season started slow but got very busy and destructive in the fall of 2024. There were 18 named storms in 2024, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Hurricane prediction breakdown
Of the 17 named storms predicted this year, the researchers forecast nine to become hurricanes and four to reach major hurricane strength of Category 3 or higher, with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. The team also predicts that hurricane activity this year will be about 125% of the average season 1991-2020. In comparison, hurricane activity in 2024 was about 130% of the average season.
Probability of major hurricane landfall in 2025
- 51% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880-2020 is 43%)
- 26% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average from 1880-2020 is 21%)
- 33% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas (average from 1880-2020 is 27%)
- 56% for the Caribbean (average from 1880-2020 is 47%)
This story was originally published April 12, 2025 at 6:00 AM.
