Now the race to be the next SC governor is on

Now the race to be South Carolina’s next governor really is underway.

Two big events in the coming week effectively will kick off the contest to be elected the Palmetto State’s chief executive in November of next year.

▪ On Monday, Gov. Henry McMaster will get a big endorsement when President Donald Trump flies through the Upstate for a Greenville fundraiser.

The visit is the payoff for McMaster’s early endorsement of Trump for president. McMaster was the first statewide elected official to endorse the New York mogul, doing so before the S.C. GOP primary.

Having Trump on his side could be a huge help to McMaster in his GOP primary battle against former state Cabinet director Catherine Templeton, who has kept pace with the incumbent in fundraising. Lt. Gov. Kevin Bryant and former Lt. Gov. Yancey McGill also are seeking the GOP’s nomination.

“Trump is a shot in the arm for McMaster,” said Scott Huffmon, a political scientist and pollster for Winthrop University.

“If he needs to stop a slide in his momentum, Trump can re-energize him very quickly in 140 characters,” Huffmon said, citing the word limit for Trump’s favorite medium, Twitter.

But others don’t think a private fundraiser with the president eight months before the GOP primary will have that much impact on GOP voters.

“Endorsements don’t help all that much,” said David Woodard, a political science professor at Clemson University. Whatever excitement an outside figure brings, it “leaves on the plane with them,” he said.

(Some support for that theory: In Alabama’s GOP Senate primary earlier this year, Trump flew in to endorse incumbent U.S. Sen. Luther Strange. Days later, Strange lost to former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore.)

▪ Democrats won’t take the week off either.

After months with only Republican candidates in the running for the state’s top job, Democratic state Rep. James Smith is scheduled to announce his candidacy Tuesday in Columbia.

An Army veteran as well as a longtime Democratic lawmaker, Smith is the favorite for his party’s nomination but must get by Charleston businessman Phil Noble, who also is seeking the Democratic nomination.

What’s the message?

Developing a compelling campaign message or theme might be more important than an endorsement.

Democrats say they intend to tie the GOP to State House corruption, noting that an ongoing investigation has led to charges against four top GOP lawmakers.

S.C. Democratic Party chairman Trav Robertson highlights ties between McMaster and the Columbia political strategy and consulting firm of Richard Quinn & Associates and state Rep. Rick Quinn, one of the lawmakers charged in the probe.

“The governor can’t open a door without Rick and Richard Quinn turning the handle,” Robertson said.

Robertson says Democrats also plan to highlight the GOP-led Legislature’s handling of the failed V.C. Summer nuclear plant and its fallout.

Winthrop’s Huffmon sees the corruption probe as a potential theme for Templeton’s GOP primary challenge to McMaster as well.

“Right now, she’s the one putting the spin on how people see it,” he said. “McMaster hasn’t grabbed on to a significant issue.”

Woodard, on the other hand, thinks McMaster can do well as long as he “does not wander off” from the usual Republican themes of smaller government and lower taxes.

Woodard sees the eventual Democratic nominee having to overcome a difficult challenge – being the Democratic nominee.

“Unless there’s a compelling issue going into the general election, I can’t see voters pulling the ‘D’ lever,” he said. “It’s a hurdle to get over for voters not to see (Democratic leaders) Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer when they see him.”

Records must be broken?

Money also will be a factor in 2018.

Because Smith is launching his campaign later than his Republican opponents, he will have to raise money quickly to be competitive – maybe a lot of money.

“For Smith to have a chance, he’s going to have to break fundraising records,” Huffmon said. “It’s going to take a good bit to overcome either Trump-mentum or a conservative outsider.”

Democrat Robertson thinks State House scandals could turn the 2018 election into an emotional race that could result in an upset.

“Money is not as significant a determining factor as anger and outrage,” he said. “If scandals drive turnout, it circumvents the need to raise a large amount of money.

“The emotion that drove Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders is still out there.”

This story was originally published October 14, 2017 at 9:00 PM with the headline "Now the race to be the next SC governor is on."